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Fortum's situation is still confusing due to the European energy crisis resulting from Russian military action, but we believe that the likelihood of a rapid exit from Russia has improved. In addition, with Germany’s Energy Security Act, Uniper's worst scenario is largely excluded, even though Russian gas supplies are spluttering as the country uses energy as a political weapon. Fortum’s valuation is very low (2023e P/E under 11x) and the investment profile would become much more attractive if the exit from Russia was at least reasonably successful.

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Trade. (Fortum)

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