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The improvement gradient remains unclear

Recent news flow has been very encouraging across many sectors, and we believe the improving conditions also apply to Raute at least to some extent. This assumption is by no means a stretch given how meagre levels project deliveries’ small order intake reached in H2’20. Raute’s business environment is bound to improve this year. There is even a relevant chance for an order boom in the coming years, given the fact that Raute’s customers’ (plywood and LVL mills) demand is mostly driven by the construction industry. We however continue to estimate Q1’21 to have been relatively muted, albeit with some definite improvement in small project orders relative to the few previous quiet quarters.

Pickup may prove fast, but we see this year as another gap

We leave our previous estimates unchanged. We estimate smaller equipment orders to have been EUR 10m in Q1’21. The figure implies improvement on the EUR 3m Q4’20 number that excludes the EUR 55m Russian mill order but remains below the EUR 14m seen in Q1’20. We expect order book to have remained at a decent EUR 82m level and revenue to have amounted to a likewise good EUR 34m. These relatively strong figures reflect reliance on big Russian projects in an otherwise still weak demand environment. We also expect Raute to climb back to black this year in terms of EBIT and see the Q1 figure at EUR 1.6m. Raute’s global competitive position means plenty more potential in the long-term perspective, but we believe FY ’21 results will still be somewhat modest in the historical context.

In our view valuation now lands within a neutral range

The current context might warrant some stretch in valuation multiples considering the potential for a rapid improvement in orders, not to mention Raute’s strong competitive positioning. We nevertheless do not see upside on the current ca. 8-10x EV/EBITDA and 12-16x EV/EBIT multiples on our estimates for FY ’21-22. We retain our EUR 21 TP. Our rating is now HOLD (SELL).

Source: Finwire News.