BTS Group: We expect some softness in the US in Q2e - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
US decision-making could have been delayed in Q2
During times of global uncertainty, consulting projects typically see effects of delayed orders, starts or even cancellations. We view the global trade situation during Q2 as one such event, and as Accenture reported -7% new bookings vs the prior year, despite sales growing 8% in local currency (link), we find it likely that there has been somewhat longer lead times during the quarter. This has likely a slightly larger effect in the North American segment, while the European segment is facing an easy comparable (-23% organic growth on some project specific delays last year). In other markets, the -2% organic growth in Q1 was affected by holidays, and we expect to see a recovery to positive growth territory again. All-in-all in Q2e, we estimate 2% organic growth and an adj. EBITA of SEK 99m, for a margin of 13.7% (15.1%) and down 10% y-o-y. Our estimate is 11% below the latest FactSet consensus.
We cut EBITA by 3-5%
We make small negative revisions to our North American estimates (from 4% organic growth to -4% in Q2e), and consequently net recruitment recovery is likely a bit later than we previously expected, which affects 2026-27e numbers as well. All in all, we reduce our sales estimates by 2% and EBITA by 3-5% for 2025-27e.
FY guidance at risk if Q2 misses
BTS reiterated its FY guidance on the Q1 report, that "EBITA should be higher in 2025e vs 2024". On our new estimates, we now expect 1% earnings growth in 2025e (vs previously 7%), which means that if Q2 would come in lower than we expect, there is a potential risk that BTS downgrades its guidance to "earnings in line with 2024". On our revised estimates, the share trades at 11.6x 2025e EV/EBITA, which comes down to 9.6x in 2026e.
During times of global uncertainty, consulting projects typically see effects of delayed orders, starts or even cancellations. We view the global trade situation during Q2 as one such event, and as Accenture reported -7% new bookings vs the prior year, despite sales growing 8% in local currency (link), we find it likely that there has been somewhat longer lead times during the quarter. This has likely a slightly larger effect in the North American segment, while the European segment is facing an easy comparable (-23% organic growth on some project specific delays last year). In other markets, the -2% organic growth in Q1 was affected by holidays, and we expect to see a recovery to positive growth territory again. All-in-all in Q2e, we estimate 2% organic growth and an adj. EBITA of SEK 99m, for a margin of 13.7% (15.1%) and down 10% y-o-y. Our estimate is 11% below the latest FactSet consensus.
We cut EBITA by 3-5%
We make small negative revisions to our North American estimates (from 4% organic growth to -4% in Q2e), and consequently net recruitment recovery is likely a bit later than we previously expected, which affects 2026-27e numbers as well. All in all, we reduce our sales estimates by 2% and EBITA by 3-5% for 2025-27e.
FY guidance at risk if Q2 misses
BTS reiterated its FY guidance on the Q1 report, that "EBITA should be higher in 2025e vs 2024". On our new estimates, we now expect 1% earnings growth in 2025e (vs previously 7%), which means that if Q2 would come in lower than we expect, there is a potential risk that BTS downgrades its guidance to "earnings in line with 2024". On our revised estimates, the share trades at 11.6x 2025e EV/EBITA, which comes down to 9.6x in 2026e.