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Afarak Group

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Company report
26.2.
2018

Afarak reported Q4 results on Friday. Afarak’s topline came in fairly in line with expectations due to good market conditions. However, the company’s operational profitability was still under pressure and fell short from our expectations. Due to the dispute between Afarak’s shareholders we abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation. The believe the stock price will be driven by this dispute and Afarak’s possible delisting process rather than fundamentals in the short term.

Company report
22.2.
2018

We argue that the current valuation reflects too high short-term expectations and on the contrary the negative development of market prices point to weakening earnings. In our view, the current premium valuation to book value would require a double digit return on equity, which we do not expect the company to reach in the short-term. We urge investors to focus on the company’s long-term growth initiatives.

Company report
22.2.
2018

Afarak’s Q2-report came below our expectations in the big picture, although the moderate market price environment supported sales Y-on-Y. Profitability fell short of our expectations despite being better than on weak Q2’16. Afarak guided that Q3’17 will be below Q2’17, which was in line with our expectations. However, we did some estimate revisions for H2’17. We argue that the valuation is still too high given our earnings estimates and thus the risk profile is still elevated.

Company report
22.2.
2018

We have continued to clarify the dispute between Afarak’s owners. We have concluded that we cannot reliably evaluate the matter’s potential juridical consequences or its outcome. In this exceptional matter, the share’s price may not be tied to the company’s fundamental value. We will continue research on Afarak and we will continue to evaluate the company’s operations. However, we do not see it justifiable nor do we have the required information to be able to take stance on the dispute or evaluate the matters consequences.

Company report
22.2.
2018

Afarak reported their Q3 results on Friday. On topline level Afarak’s development normalized from weak Q3’16 and was slightly above our expectations. However, profitability was burdened by significant adverse development in raw material costs. Higher cost load was more than enough to offset the positive volume development and thus profitability dropped to the negative side. Due to the dispute between Afarak’s shareholders we abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation. However, the share looks overvalued by all metrics on operational perspective.

Afarak Group