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Aspo’s Q1 results beat estimates. Uncertainty persists around H2, but we are now more confident towards Telko.
Aspo actively continues its investigation into strategic alternatives for its operations in Russia, but we expect the outcome to be Aspo exiting Russia without meaningful financial compensation.
Aspo’s Q1 results clearly topped estimates, however the previous full-year guidance is retained for now as much uncertainty persists around Telko’s H2.
Net sales were 17% above consensus in Q1. Comparable operating profit was even 82% above market (Infront) consensus in Q1. The company booked EUR 4.9m net write downs and other one-offs for Q1 result mainly due to crisis in Ukraine.
Aspo resumed guidance relatively fast due to ESL’s current strong positioning, however much uncertainty remains around Telko’s performance in the coming few quarters.
A strong shipping market could have led Aspo to post a record year of earnings in 2022, but the Ukraine crisis changed the investment story. Around 26% of annual net sales are from Russia, Ukraine and other CIS countries.
The war raises questions around Telko and Leipurin, but we view the recent sell-off a bit overdone despite the risks.
Aspo’s Q4 adj. EBIT reached EUR 13.9m; we believe ESL’s and Telko’s results are resilient while the guidance doesn’t appear to set the bar very high either for H1 or H2.
A particularly good shipping market was the main reason for Aspo's clear EBIT beat versus market consensus (Infront) in Q4. Full-year guidance indicates flat growth in comparable EBIT, although still some 5% above consensus (Refinitiv).
Net sales was 8% above consensus (Infront) in Q4. Clean operating profit was very good in Q4 due to ESL Shipping segment. The profitability of all vessel categories was historically strong in Q4.