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Fortum

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Net impact profile

Analyysi
7.12.
2022

Although the Finnish tax proposal was bad news for next year's results, the sharp rise in electricity prices compensated for this and improves the outlook for the coming years.

Analyysi
11.11.
2022

The Q3 result exceeded our expectations and the rapid increase in hedging prices for 2023 supported our earnings estimates. In the big picture, the report confirmed that the company's liquidity position and balance sheet structure are in order after the finalization of the Uniper arrangement.

Analyysi
13.10.
2022

Our update relates to the restated comparison figures that exclude Uniper published by Fortum, based on which we revised the figures. At the same time, we made minor updates to our estimates, mainly related to electricity price developments.

Analyysi
22.9.
2022

Fortum announced yesterday that it had reached an agreement with the German State on the nationalization of Uniper. Fortum will recover its EUR 8 billion financing for Uniper (loan and guarantee) and gain EUR 0.5 billion from its Uniper holding. Even though the Uniper adventure was extremely expensive, the Fortum that hatches from the solution has a relatively attractive profile and with the current electricity market outlook the balance sheet will recover quite quickly.

Analyysi
26.8.
2022

The company's Q2 result was good operationally and the reported figures were better than expected, but the EUR 5.7 billion loss is still nothing to celebrate.

Analyysi
23.8.
2022

Fortum will publish its Q2 report on Thursday at around 9.00 am. The result will be shocking due to the loss of more than EUR 9 billion reported by subsidiary Uniper in Q2, but Fortum's Nordic core business is set for record results in the coming years if electricity prices remain exceptionally high.

Analyysi
18.8.
2022

Fortum's subsidiary Uniper reported its Q2 result yesterday. We were aware that Uniper's gas business was in disarray following the disruption of gas supplies from Russia, but more problems seem to be piling up all the time.

Analyysi
25.7.
2022

Germany’s stabilization package prevents Uniper from going bankrupt, but apparently only enables Uniper’s price increases from October 1. Before that, Uniper will generate huge losses if Gazprom's gas streams remain shut and gas prices extremely high. Fortum's valuation is already reasonable also without Uniper if the financing provided to the company is secure. However, we still urge investors to be extremely cautious in the uncertain situation, the outcome of which is still very difficult to assess. 

Analyysi
21.6.
2022

Fortum's situation is still confusing due to the European energy crisis resulting from Russian military action, but we believe that the likelihood of a rapid exit from Russia has improved. In addition, with Germany’s Energy Security Act, Uniper's worst scenario is largely excluded, even though Russian gas supplies are spluttering as the country uses energy as a political weapon. Fortum’s valuation is very low (2023e P/E under 11x) and the investment profile would become much more attractive if the exit from Russia was at least reasonably successful.

Analyysi
13.5.
2022

The operating result of the "old Fortum" was in line with expectations and the company said it would withdraw in a controlled manner from Russia, which is difficult in the current situation. There is plenty of commotion around Russian gas, but in addition to the accelerating bans, we also received news from Germany that diluted the risks around Uniper.

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