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Fortum

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Analyysi
22.9.
2022

Fortum announced yesterday that it had reached an agreement with the German State on the nationalization of Uniper. Fortum will recover its EUR 8 billion financing for Uniper (loan and guarantee) and gain EUR 0.5 billion from its Uniper holding. Even though the Uniper adventure was extremely expensive, the Fortum that hatches from the solution has a relatively attractive profile and with the current electricity market outlook the balance sheet will recover quite quickly.

Analyysi
26.8.
2022

The company's Q2 result was good operationally and the reported figures were better than expected, but the EUR 5.7 billion loss is still nothing to celebrate.

Analyysi
23.8.
2022

Fortum will publish its Q2 report on Thursday at around 9.00 am. The result will be shocking due to the loss of more than EUR 9 billion reported by subsidiary Uniper in Q2, but Fortum's Nordic core business is set for record results in the coming years if electricity prices remain exceptionally high.

Analyysi
18.8.
2022

Fortum's subsidiary Uniper reported its Q2 result yesterday. We were aware that Uniper's gas business was in disarray following the disruption of gas supplies from Russia, but more problems seem to be piling up all the time.

Analyysi
25.7.
2022

Germany’s stabilization package prevents Uniper from going bankrupt, but apparently only enables Uniper’s price increases from October 1. Before that, Uniper will generate huge losses if Gazprom's gas streams remain shut and gas prices extremely high. Fortum's valuation is already reasonable also without Uniper if the financing provided to the company is secure. However, we still urge investors to be extremely cautious in the uncertain situation, the outcome of which is still very difficult to assess. 

Analyysi
21.6.
2022

Fortum's situation is still confusing due to the European energy crisis resulting from Russian military action, but we believe that the likelihood of a rapid exit from Russia has improved. In addition, with Germany’s Energy Security Act, Uniper's worst scenario is largely excluded, even though Russian gas supplies are spluttering as the country uses energy as a political weapon. Fortum’s valuation is very low (2023e P/E under 11x) and the investment profile would become much more attractive if the exit from Russia was at least reasonably successful.

Analyysi
13.5.
2022

The operating result of the "old Fortum" was in line with expectations and the company said it would withdraw in a controlled manner from Russia, which is difficult in the current situation. There is plenty of commotion around Russian gas, but in addition to the accelerating bans, we also received news from Germany that diluted the risks around Uniper.

Analyysi
27.4.
2022

Last night, Fortum's subsidiary Uniper issued a drastic profit warning on the Q1 result and reported impairment charges related to Russia. At the same time, Uniper's risks concerning Russian gas have increased significantly. The situation is unclear in many respects at present, but with the increased risks we do not consider Fortum’s risk/return ratio reasonable. We will update our view when the situation becomes clearer or at the latest after Fortum’s result.

Analyysi
28.2.
2022

Russia's extensive attack on Ukraine dramatically changed Fortum’s operating environment and previously extremely unlikely scenarios have become possible. Our ability to assess the likelihood of various risks is weak and uncertainty is extremely high. However, in the current situation, Fortum’s high Russia risk is not attractive, and Russia's counter-sanctions in particular can be very harmful. A lot of negatives are already priced into the share at the current level, but we remain cautious before the company's financial report. 

Fortum

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