The Q3 result exceeded our expectations and the rapid increase in hedging prices for 2023 supported our earnings estimates. In the big picture, the report confirmed that the company's liquidity position and balance sheet structure are in order after the finalization of the Uniper arrangement.

Fortum announced yesterday that it had reached an agreement with the German State on the nationalization of Uniper. Fortum will recover its EUR 8 billion financing for Uniper (loan and guarantee) and gain EUR 0.5 billion from its Uniper holding. Even though the Uniper adventure was extremely expensive, the Fortum that hatches from the solution has a relatively attractive profile and with the current electricity market outlook the balance sheet will recover quite quickly.

Fortum will publish its Q2 report on Thursday at around 9.00 am. The result will be shocking due to the loss of more than EUR 9 billion reported by subsidiary Uniper in Q2, but Fortum's Nordic core business is set for record results in the coming years if electricity prices remain exceptionally high.

Germany’s stabilization package prevents Uniper from going bankrupt, but apparently only enables Uniper’s price increases from October 1. Before that, Uniper will generate huge losses if Gazprom's gas streams remain shut and gas prices extremely high. Fortum's valuation is already reasonable also without Uniper if the financing provided to the company is secure. However, we still urge investors to be extremely cautious in the uncertain situation, the outcome of which is still very difficult to assess.