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Pääanalyytikko
Suominen’s Q2 earnings missed estimates, but valuation isn’t very demanding on moderate estimate levels.
Q2 comparable EBITDA of EUR 1.9m was below expectations but management expects improving H2 volumes. We expect a margin recovery starting from the low level in Q2 – but we cut 2022E EBITDA to EUR 21m. Marketing material commissioned by Suominen Oyj.
Suominen’s Q2 profitability fell clearly below estimates as cost inflation continued again relatively strong. Profitability will nevertheless improve in Q3 and especially in Q4.
Suominen’s operations continued to be affected by high cost and slow correction in the US consumer inventories, leaving adjusted EBITDA to EUR 1.9m. Cash flow was strong, however, owing to reduction in working capital.
Suominen reports Q2 results on Tue, Aug 9. We continue to expect q/q improvement over the weak Q1 results.
Suominen’s Q1 results and guidance downgrade weren’t that big negatives in our view, however there’s high uncertainty around the upcoming improvement pace. We nevertheless continue to expect significant gains for H2.
We revise down our comparable EBITDA estimates by 8% for 2022 and 4% for 2023, reflecting the lowered company guidance, as cost escalation and destocking in the US continue to hamper margins in Q2.
Suominen’s Q1 results landed relatively close to estimates, although on the softer side.
Suominen’s Q1 EBITDA was weak, as expected, due to the high inventory levels at some of Suominen’s key customers in the US, along with escalation in costs which will feed through to sales prices with a lag.
Suominen reports Q1 results on May 4. We revise our H1’22 profitability estimates down a bit due to higher raw materials and energy prices, yet we continue to expect significant improvement for H2’22.
