Aktia has had a weak relative performance year-to-date, up only 5% and representing a 15% underperformance compared to the Nordic bank index. We struggle to see a good reason for this, as we expect banks in general to benefit from having more fee than NII exposure, which is very much the case for Aktia. Further, Aktia announced an acquisition in the quarter that we believe will be accretive. We expect strong Q1 trends and keep a constructive view on the stock.
We have not made any changes to our full-year estimates. For Q1, we are 10% above FactSet consensus on a net profit basis and 9% on pre-provision profits. The main drivers are fees, where we are 4% above, and other income including life, where we are 6% above.
Aktia is trading on 8.9x 2022E earnings and on a 2022E P/TBV of 1.08x for an 11.4% ROTE,
which we believe is an attractive valuation both in absolute and relative terms. As argued before, we believe a premium is justified due to its large exposure to a higher ROE and growth asset management operation.
We reiterate our fair value range of EUR10.3-11.6.
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