Exel’s record Q1 orders surprised. In our view the next quarters’ orders determine how much forward-look the multiples warrant. Our TP is EUR 11, now rate HOLD (BUY).
Earnings multiples have already rerated for a valid reason Exel is valued ca. 9.5x EV/EBITDA and 15x EV/EBIT on our FY ’21 estimates. The multiples are a bit high compared to the historical respective averages of 8x and 13x but in our view warranted by the current growth prospects. Top line growth continues to drive profitability and the multiples are some 8.5x and 12x on our FY ’22 estimates. In our opinion the next few quarters’ orders will determine how much forward into the future the multiples may lean. We retain our EUR 11 TP, rating now HOLD (BUY)
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