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Afarak Group

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Inderes analyysi
14.5.
2018

Afarak reported Q1 results on Friday. Afarak’s topline exceeded our expectations clearly despite weak market conditions. However, the company’s operational profitability was still under pressure despite being slightly better than the recent profit warning indicated. Due to the unclarity of Afarak’s ownership structure and the consequences of this we abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation. We believe that the stock price will not be driven by the company’s operative results in the short term.

Inderes analyysi
7.5.
2018

Afarak will publish their Q1-report on Friday. We expect revenues to have decreased y-on-y significantly due to lower market prices and volumes. The company announced a profit warning on Friday (4th of May) where it stated that due to various adverse profit drivers the company’s EBITDA will be around 1 MEUR negative for Q1’18. In relation to the company’s operational performance the stock is clearly overvalued. However, we do not expect the company’s operational performance to act as the stock’s main driver for now.

Inderes analyysi
26.2.
2018

Afarak reported Q4 results on Friday. Afarak’s topline came in fairly in line with expectations due to good market conditions. However, the company’s operational profitability was still under pressure and fell short from our expectations. Due to the dispute between Afarak’s shareholders we abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation. The believe the stock price will be driven by this dispute and Afarak’s possible delisting process rather than fundamentals in the short term.

Inderes analyysi
20.11.
2017

Afarak reported their Q3 results on Friday. On topline level Afarak’s development normalized from weak Q3’16 and was slightly above our expectations. However, profitability was burdened by significant adverse development in raw material costs. Higher cost load was more than enough to offset the positive volume development and thus profitability dropped to the negative side. Due to the dispute between Afarak’s shareholders we abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation. However, the share looks overvalued by all metrics on operational perspective.

Inderes analyysi
25.9.
2017

We have continued to clarify the dispute between Afarak’s owners. We have concluded that we cannot reliably evaluate the matter’s potential juridical consequences or its outcome. In this exceptional matter, the share’s price may not be tied to the company’s fundamental value. We will continue research on Afarak and we will continue to evaluate the company’s operations. However, we do not see it justifiable nor do we have the required information to be able to take stance on the dispute or evaluate the matters consequences.

Inderes analyysi
13.8.
2017

Afarak’s Q2-report came below our expectations in the big picture, although the moderate market price environment supported sales Y-on-Y. Profitability fell short of our expectations despite being better than on weak Q2’16. Afarak guided that Q3’17 will be below Q2’17, which was in line with our expectations. However, we did some estimate revisions for H2’17. We argue that the valuation is still too high given our earnings estimates and thus the risk profile is still elevated.

Inderes analyysi
12.7.
2017

We argue that the current valuation reflects too high short-term expectations and on the contrary the negative development of market prices point to weakening earnings. In our view, the current premium valuation to book value would require a double digit return on equity, which we do not expect the company to reach in the short-term. We urge investors to focus on the company’s long-term growth initiatives.

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Afarak Group