Inderes’s Q3 sales came in line with our estimates, while EBITA was 4% above our estimate thanks to lower slightly lower personnel costs. However, the soft spot of the report is the slower-than-expected development of international sales (read Sweden). Also the number of research contracts stayed flat q/q and was slightly below our estimate, indicating our Q4 sales estimate of 9% may be slightly optimistic.

Outcome: Sales in line, EBITA marginally ahead

Inderes’s Q3 sales came in at EUR 4.32m, hitting our estimate of EUR 4.32m (deviation +0.1%). July-August sales were already reported at EUR 2.8m (+12% y/y) and September sales grew by 8% to EUR 1.5m (1.4m), in line with our estimate. This translates into Q3 group growth of 11% y/y. The solid growth is thanks to continued performance in software and higher research contract count. 

Recurring revenue increased by 9% to EUR 3.2m (73% of group sales), driven mainly by software. Project revenue grew by 17% to EUR 1.2m against a weak comparison period (-28% y/y in Q3/25).

International sales decreased by 3% y/y to EUR 0.93m (21.5% of group sales vs. 24.5% a year ago) which is clearly below our estimate of EUR 1.08m (25.0% of group sales) and the soft spot of the report in our view. The CEO also acknowledged that international growth is not at the targeted level and that the transition of the Swedish Events business has been slower than planned. We find this disappointing given its importance to the equity story.

The number of commissioned research contracts was 153, unchanged q/q and below our estimate of 155, although still up 7% y/y (143). The number of listed company customers also decreased by one q/q to 429 (430).

Adjusted EBITA landed at EUR 0.97m (Q3/25: EUR 0.72m), slightly (4%) above our estimate of EUR 0.93m. Adjusted EBITA margin was 22.4% (18.4% a year ago) vs. our estimate of 21.5%. With minor deviations, we call the cost development as being in line with our estimates.

Looking ahead, the flat q/q development in research contracts means the company enters Q4 with 7% higher underlying research volume y/y. Combined with continued software momentum, this supports growth into 2027.  

Inderes Q3/26 deviation table

Source: SEB, Inderes

Outlook: Recently updated guidance repeated

Inderes updated its guidance for 2026 recently and our 2026 estimates are already well aligned with the new guidance. The company expects 2026 revenue to increase by 6-9% from the previous year (SEB est. 9%) and EBITA margin, excluding non-recurring items, is seen in range of 12-14% (SEB est. 13.0%).

Conference call details: Two calls available

Finnish event starts at 9.30am at https://inderes.events.inderes.com/q3-2026/register.  

English event starts at 14pm at https://www.inderes.dk/videos/inderes-presentation-of-q3-2026-results.