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Afarak Group

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Inderes analyysi
10.5.
2020

Päätämme Afarakin seurannan yhtiön irtisanottua yhtiöseurantasopimuksen. Aloitimme Afarakin seurannan kesällä 2017, jolloin yhtiöllä oli takana tuloksellisesti vahva alkuvuosi. Vuoden loppua kohden kannattavuuskehitys kuitenkin heikentyi ja samalla yhtiön omistajarakenteeseen liittyvä epävarmuus nousi pinnalle. Viimeiset kaksi vuotta ovat olleet yhtiölle tuloksellisesti erittäin heikkoja ja samalla omistajarakenteeseen liittyvässä epäselvyydessä on nähty lukuisia käänteitä.

Inderes analyysi
29.2.
2020

Afarak reported Q4’19 results on Friday, which came in line with our revised expectations as the company gave a profit warning earlier. We expect earnings to stay subdued in the coming quarters due to weak market conditions. We abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation for Afarak Group due to the dispute between major shareholders. However, in our view the current valuation in relation to the company’s earnings ability is clearly elevated. 

Inderes analyysi
2.12.
2019

Afarak reported Q3’19 results on Friday. Despite better than expected revenue development earnings came in clearly below our estimates and were negative. We expect earnings to stay subdued on Q4 due to weak market conditions. We abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation for Afarak Group due to the dispute between major shareholders. However, in our view the current valuation in relation to the company’s earnings ability is clearly elevated. 

Inderes analyysi
26.8.
2019

Afarak reported Q2’19 result on Friday. Afarak had issued an operative update prior to the earnings release and therefore the significant loss for Q2 was no news at this point. We expect earnings to stay subdued on the coming quarters due to severe issues in Ferroalloys. We abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation for Afarak Group due to the dispute between major shareholders. However, in our view the current valuation in relation to the company’s earnings ability is clearly elevated.

Inderes analyysi
20.8.
2019

Afarak will publish its Q2-numbers this Friday. The company provided an operational update earlier and it is known that Afak will post deep in the red operational profitability from Q2. We updated our estimates to reflect this and we also revised H2 estimates downwards. We abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation for the share due to the unclarity of the company’s ownership structure and its possible consequences.

Inderes analyysi
28.6.
2019

We estimate Afarak’s earnings will stay weak amid slowing market conditions and we do not expect the company to reach black numbers in the coming quarters. Therefore, the tender offer price (EUR 1.015 per share) is high in our view and we argue that it exceeds value of the shares. The tender offer price corresponds to a 1.7x P/B multiple that we argue is not justifiable by the company’s earnings capability. We abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation for the share due to the unclarity of the company’s ownership structure and its possible consequences.

Inderes analyysi
20.5.
2019

Afarak reported its Q1’19 results on Friday. Afarak issued a profit warning for Q1 earlier last week and expected to post a clear loss for Q1. Therefore, the weak reported profitability for Q1 did not come as a surprise. We abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation for Afarak Group due to the dispute between major shareholders. However, in our view the current valuation in relation to the company’s earnings is clearly elevated.

Inderes analyysi
25.2.
2019

Afarak reported its Q4’18 results on Friday. Sales were in line with our expectations that reflected weak volumes in Ferroalloys segment. Profitability was, however, weaker than expected also due to Ferroalloys. We abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation for Afarak Group due to the dispute between major shareholders. However, in our view the current valuation in relation to the company’s earnings is clearly elevated.

Inderes analyysi
19.11.
2018

Afarak reported Q3’18 results on Friday. Sales was fairly in line with our expectations that reflected weak volumes in Ferroalloys segment. Profitability was, however, weaker than expected also due to Ferroalloys. We abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation due to the dispute between major shareholders. However, in our view the current valuation in relation to the company’s earnings is clearly elevated.

Inderes analyysi
13.8.
2018

Afarak reported Q2’18 results on Friday. Sales grew rapidly y-on-y due to a clear increase in volumes, which exceeded our expectations despite being higher than Q2’17. Profitability was however weak and came in below our estimates. We abstain from giving a target price or a recommendation due to the dispute between major shareholders. However, in our view the current valuation in relation to the company’s earnings is clearly elevated.

Afarak Group