Only hours after we published our initial analysis of Advenica, the company announced an order worth MSEK 58 from a Swedish authority, corresponding to roughly 25 per cent of annual revenue, which pushed the share above our fair value. The Q4 report was received less favourably and the share fell 10 per cent despite revenue of MSEK 50.7 coming in above our estimate of MSEK 47. Costs were also higher than expected, resulting in EBIT of MSEK -0.8 versus our forecast of MSEK 3.7. Full-year sales for 2025 exceeded MSEK 200 and the bottom line reached a record MSEK 16.6, supported by a strong first half. Following the report and other news, we have adjusted our short-term forecasts and now estimate 2026 sales of MSEK 225, but with higher costs. We keep our fair value of SEK 18 per share.
The full report is available here.