Ascelia Pharma (One-pager): Managements’s vote of confidence sends shares soaring
Ascelia Pharma’s stock price has soared in 2024 with the stock up almost 160 percent since New Year. Adding the return from the latter part of December 2023, the stock is up more than 200 percent since the company in the beginning of December announced that the re-evaluation of the Orviglance data is on track.
In the announcement, Ascelia Pharma described how the new team of radiologists has been appointed and trained and have done their first image reading, which made the management reiterate that headline results from the last and pivotal image reading Phase 3 study, SPARKLE, will be finalized by May 2024 as previously guided. In the beginning of January 2024 investors received another indication that Ascelia Pharma is on track, as three members of the management team and board of directors according to the regulatory bodies were registered to increase their stock holdings sending a strong vote of confidence in the prospects for Ascelia Pharma. Following the increased share price, we have revisited our model and updated our One-Pager.
As the One-Pager shows, the increased stock price has raised the implied likelihood according to the stock market for Ascelia Pharma to successfully launch their Orviglance product as measured by a PoS (probability of Success) of approximately 35 percent. This is more in line with many others Biotech and Life-Science companies, but still low as the average historical likelihood for BioTech and Life-Science companies in general to make it from phase 2 through phase 3 is more than 50 percent.
To sum up, the management and the stock market are increasingly aligned in the belief the Ascelia Pharma is moving forward as planned, but a successful launch of Orviglance is still only partly reflected in the stock price from both an absolute and relative perspective. Finally, it is worth noting that if Orviglance is successfully launched for patients with severe impaired kidneys, two important opportunities could potentially add significant upside to the investment case; Orviglance could be sold for scans of patients with normal kidney function currently using gadolinium, and Ascelia Pharma would be able to restart their oral cancer treatment project, Oncoral, which is currently put on hold as all resources are focused on Orviglance until it is approved. These two opportunities are not included in the model at this point.
Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Ascelia Pharma for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Claus Thestrup 09:00 AM 29-01-2024.
Ascelia Pharma
Ascelia Pharma is a Swedish biotech company with a focus on orphan oncology treatments. They develop and commercialize novel drugs that address unmet medical needs and have a clear development and market pathway. Currently, Ascelia pharma has two pipeline products, namely Orviglance and Oncoral. Orviglance is a novel contrast agent for MR-Imaging developed to improve the detecting and visualization of focal liver lesions (Including liver metastases – and primary tumors) in patients with reduced kidney function. Oncoral is a daily tablet with an established potent anti-tumor effect – even in difficult to treat cancers with the potential to offer better patient outcomes with improved safety following a daily tablet treatment compared to intravenous high-dose infusions at the hospital. Ascelia Pharma is listed on Nasdaq Small Cap Stockholm with ticker ACE.
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