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Analyysi

ExpreS2ion Biotech (One-pager): Pipeline focus on HER2+ breast cancer therapy

ExpreS2ion Biotech Holding
Lataa raportti (PDF)

Although not a one-product company, the primary shareholder value creation lies in the progression of its ES2B-C001 breast cancer vaccine candidate, given its unmet need within HER2+ breast cancer therapy, and very large addressable market at around USD 10bn[1] annually based on current treatments.

The ES2B-C001 vaccine targets the HER2+ protein, associated with a more aggressive, higher recurrence, and higher mortality rate disease. The ES2B-C001 vaccine targets multiple HER2+ epitope sites vs existing therapies (1-2 epitopes) of the HER2-ECD. Existing monoclonal therapies have been associated with resistance, (which pre-clinical data has overcome), and additional adverse cardiac effects. An elongation of progression free survival (PFS) or reduced cardiac effects would offer a significant advantage.

From a valuation perspective, a DCF-modelling approach is considered appropriate. Based on the assumptions discussed on pages 2 and 3, the model suggests that the market is discounting around a 4% chance of ExpreS2ion Biotech’s success including its ES2B-C001 candidate and technology platform. Since the company’s market value is on par with its cash position the market is attributing little value to ExpreS2ion’s pipeline, platform, and 34% ownership of AdaptVac. Our model indicates that the market implied PoS is below the average benchmark for a Phase I candidate which might be explained by a view that future dilutive capital raises are needed to reach the clinical milestones necessary to secure partnership financing and may also be influenced by very low share liquidity.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from ExpreS2ion Biotech for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Claus Thestrup 8:55, 10/06/2025.

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ExpreS2ion Biotech Holding

21,7SEK9.6.2025 klo 19.00

ExpreS2ion is a Danish-based biotech company listed in Sweden. The company develops a portfolio of vaccines for diseases such as COVID-19, influenza, and breast cancer through the use of its non-viral cell-based expression system, ExpreS2, which is recognized for handling protein challenges. ExpreS2ion has developed Expres2, which is a technology platform for efficient and fast non-clinical development and production of complex proteins for new vaccines and diagnostics. The company’s current primary product is the corona vaccine candidate, ABNCoV2 in phase 2, co-developed with its partner, AdaptVac of which ExpreS2ion owns 34%. The vaccine candidate has been licensed to Bavarian Nordic has global commercialization rights and responsibility for further clinical development of the vaccine and is expected to initiate phase 3 testing for the product candidate in the first half of 2022.

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