Analyysi

Inderes Group - Ending the year with accelerating growth - SEB

– SEB

Inderes’ Oct-Nov sales show that we underestimated the bounce-back of the timing issue, which caused weak September sales. We also read that the Event business could be gaining momentum in Sweden. With the market environment (IPO activity) improving, we forecast accelerating growth for 2026E, which should also allow a visible step up in margin. Fair value range a notch up to EUR 19-21.

Q4/25E: Seems like the best quarter of 2025

Following strong sales in Oct-Nov, we have hiked our estimates and now expect Q4 sales growth of 10%, with the EBITA margin rising to 5% from last year’s print of just 1%. In terms the upcoming FY26 guidance, we expect the company to indicate (mid-single digit) sales growth and an improving EBITA margin (SEBe 12.9% vs 2025E 11.3%).

IPO activity backing sales acceleration, Swedish expansion remains

IPOs kicked off in H2/25 and we see continued momentum into 2026. Hence, we expect the market-driven headwind to ease, and the number of listed companies in Finland could return to growth. We model in 1-2 new research clients per quarter and note that all new exchange entrants are highly likely to be Inderes customers in other business areas too. The improving market environment leads us to expect accelerating sales growth for 2026E, but we still see the Swedish (and international) expansion as a key catalyst for the case. Hence, we look closely at Q4 international sales growth (SEBe c. 15%) and note that we have pencilled in 16% growth internationally for 2026E. In terms of the recently announced Euronext-cooperation, we believe the deal could well turn into accelerating sales growth, but the middleman takes its cut of the margin.

Trading at 10x 2026E EBITA, SEB fair value at EUR 19-21

With our long-term estimates slightly up and a revised Events business SOTP valuation, our fair value range rises a notch to EUR 19-21 (from EUR 18-20).

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Inderes yhdistää sijoittajat ja pörssiyhtiöt. Yhtiö tuottaa syväluotaavaa osaketutkimusta ja sijoittajaviestinnän ratkaisuja yli 400 pörssiyhtiölle, jotka haluavat palvella sijoittajia paremmin. Inderes on listattu Nasdaq First North -markkinapaikalle ja se toimii Suomessa, Ruotsissa, Tanskassa ja Norjassa.

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