Although Inderes’s Q3 EBITA was slightly ahead of our estimate and we keep our estimates largely unchanged, the report leaves us with a mixed feeling. This is due to the slowness in international sales as the Swedish event business faces a more challenging market. Yet, the case remains unchanged: a solid foundation in domestic market which is now growing while international growth offers optionality. Our fair value equity range of EUR 19-21 per share is unchanged.

Q3 outcome: solid home market more than offsets the soft Swedish business

At the headline level, Inderes’s Q3 had positive marks with EBITA coming in slightly above our estimate. However, the in line sales is a bit of a mixed picture. The domestic core operations are developing well with Inderes winning new market entrants as clients with a high hit ratio. In addition, software enjoys solid growth with room to increase penetration in the Finnish market, we think. However, the international operations took a step back as sales declined slightly y/y. The challenge is the Swedish event business where the market is evolving and the competitive environment has tightened.

2027E: continued IPO market momentum and gradual steps internationally

As 2026 seems to be closing with healthy high-single-digit y/y percentage sales growth (SEB est. 8.3%), we model moderating growth of 6.5% for 2027E. This implies continuing momentum in Finnish IPO activity and slower growth in software. Yet, we lower international business growth expectations as we do not see the event business competition easing in the short term. Overall, we think the investment case would benefit from more evidence of growth in the international arena. However, the work is understandably gradual and, in the meanwhile, the solid domestic position offers a good foundation for the growth initiatives abroad.

Fair equity value unchanged at EUR 19-21 per share

Inderes is trading on low multiples compared to its own history. However, peer group multiples are also low dragging down the blended fair equity value range.