Ahead of Inderes’s Q2 report, we have slightly hiked estimates on back of the better-than-expected April-May sales data. In a big-picture context, we emphasise the activated IPO market, which means the underlying market for Inderes is growing. That said, the improving market situation is already in our estimates; our focus is on the gradual expansion in the Swedish market. Fair value range rises a notch to EUR 19-21 (18-20).

Q2/26E: Recurring revenue growth and international sales in focus

Inderes delivered April-May sales ahead of our estimates. We think this was largely thanks to a better-than-expected AGM season. However, the research business and software have also likely continued to grow. In Q1, Inderes’s recurring revenue increased by 7% y/y and, hence, we forecast 7% sales growth in June, translating to 9% growth in Q2. We continue to argue that the greatest upside in the Inderes case is in international expansion and, hence, we closely monitor international revenue. We now expect international sales at EUR 1.3m in Q2, up 17% y/y.

Market in growth mode provides us with confidence in our estimate profile

The Helsinki exchange welcomed four new companies during Q2 and, unless the geopolitical situation weakens again, we believe the IPO momentum could hold, resulting in a growing market size for Inderes. We think that Inderes is well positioned to win new market entrants as clients; thus, we expect Inderes’s Finnish business will grow at least with the pace of the underlying market. The improved overall sentiment should also ease Inderes’s expansion in Sweden, we believe.

Fair value range to EUR 19-21 (18-20)

With our EBITA estimates up by 7-4%, our fair value range rises a notch. We note that peer benchmarking drags down our blended valuation.