Inderes’ H1 demonstrated the underlying strength of the Finnish market, with solid growth as market headwind ends. The company is heading towards a solid close to FY/26 with 10% growth, spearheaded by scaling software. However, we keep our fair value range unchanged at EUR 19-21 but note that accelerating international expansion, which the Q2 report did not offer, would change the company dynamics.

Q2: Top-line beat does not trigger higher 2026 EBIT estimate

Inderes delivered a strong top line in Q2, with June sales topping our sales clearly. However, growth was driven by large events, which have a lower gross margin, hence EBITA was well in line with our forecast. But that does not remove the fact that underlying recurring revenue business is in solid growth (9% y/y) and with research contract volume up by 7% y/y, we see the healthy growth momentum continuing in H2. We now forecast 2026 sales growth at 9% and an EBITA margin of 12.7%, close to high end of guidance range (10-13%).

Greater upside potential in an international breakthrough

Although we regard the Q2 report as stronger than we expected overall, we note that Inderes’ international operations missed our estimate, being broadly flat y/y. The company’s solid position in the Finnish market means that growth is largely market driven (although we still see room to gain market share in software). In other words, greater upside potential lies in international expansion. The market is not limiting growth there, but breaking through takes time. Remember that Inderes was able to reach a snowball effect in Finland during the 2010s. However, gaining such momentum in the Swedish market is in many ways trickier and the work may eventually be very gradual.

Fair value range unchanged at EUR 19-21

Inderes now trades at a 2026E EV/EBITA of 10x, which we do not regard as demanding given its growth rate of 10%.