Scandinavian Medical Solutions on 26 August lowered its guidance for 2025/26 for the second time this financial year. Revenue is now expected at DKK 155-175m against DKK 190-220m previously, and EBITDA at DKK -9 to -13m against DKK 0-5m previously. The company points to sharper price competition, continued elevated freight costs, stricter requirements for the transport of dangerous goods, maintained US tariffs and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, including in the Middle East.

This alters the short-term investment case materially, and the annual report for 2025/26, scheduled for 19 November 2026, is the main catalyst from here.

We will await the annual report before updating our investment case from 20 May 2026.

The short-term case in that publication rested on three elements: that the implicitly guided H2 EBITDA of DKK 6.5-11.5m would mark a return to a more normalised earnings level, that the order backlog with sound margins would convert during H2 2025/26, and that the capacity cost reductions would have full effect in the second half. All three have now been deferred to 2026/27 at the earliest. At the midpoint of the new guidance, H2 2025/26 implies revenue of around DKK 72.7m and EBITDA of around DKK -4.1m, against DKK 122.7m and DKK 9.9m in H2 2024/25. The company has stated that the capacity cost optimisations will only reach full effect in the coming financial year, and that the accelerated inventory strategy is expected to have full effect by the half-year report for 2026/27.

What has not changed, in our view, is the long-term structural case: budget pressure at hospitals and clinics, pre-owned scanners at a fraction of new-system cost, growing demand for flexible short-term rental, and continued privatisation of healthcare. The August announcement does not alter those drivers. Nor does it alter the operational levers we identified, only the time it takes for them to show in the numbers.

The annual report is where the case can be reassessed, and our focus will be on the following:

• Guidance for 2026/27, which is the first indication of the earnings level once inventory adjustments and cost measures are fully implemented
• The run rate of the capacity cost base after warehouse consolidation and headcount reductions, against DKK 23.2m in H1 2025/26
• Gross margin development in H2 against 17.6% in H1, as an indicator of whether price competition has peaked
• Inventory and working capital, following DKK 100.7m of inventories at 31 March, and whether the target of positive cash flow by 30 September was met
• The capital situation, including the credit facility, and whether the DKK 5.0m directed issue in June leaves the company funded through the recovery
• Revenue mix, in particular the contribution from Rental and Parts, and the continued concentration of announced order intake in the US

Until then, near-term news flow is likely to be limited to individual order announcements, which do not in themselves change the guidance or the direction of the case.

For further information you can read our analyst comment on the revised guidance here:

https://www.inderes.dk/analyst-comments/sms-nedjustering-af-202526-folges-af-yderligere-tilpasning-til-markedssituationen

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Scandinavian Medical Solutions for a Digital IR subscription agreement. / Michael Friis, 14:15, 20/05/2026 (text updated 12:59, 10/09-2026)