Inderes Group - Specifies sales growth guidance and lifts EBITA margin guidance - SEB
Inderes raises its FY/26 guidance, driven by continued strong growth momentum within software. Also, the profitability trend in the research business has been good. In its new guidance, Inderes sees FY/26 sales growth of 6-9% and an EBITA margin of 12-14%. Prior to the guidance increase, we had forecast 2026 sales growth of 9% and an EBITA margin of 12.8%, meaning our current estimate stands at the new range's midpoint for EBITA. Thus, we see no material changes.
Sees FY sales growth at 6-9%, EBITA margin at 12-14%; we are at new mid-point for EBITA
Inderes just specified its sales guidance saying the FY/26 sales growth is now seen in range of 6-9% (previously: ‘Revenue increases from 2025’). At same, the EBITA margin guidance was hiked and the company now sees 2026 margin to be in range of 12-14% (previous range: 10-13%). We had already expected 2026E sales growth of 9% and EBITA margin of 12.8%, meaning our estimates are in line with the new guidance. While our sales growth estimate is represent the high-end of the new range our EBITA margin estimate of 12.8% is marginally below the new range mid-point. Summing, up our FY/26E EBITA is now 0.3% of the calculated new guidance mid-point EBITA. Thus we do not see the revised guidance to trigger material changes to our estimate.
As a background to the new guidance Inderes notes strong growth in Software business during the second half of the year, improvement in overall market conditions, and continued growth in recurring revenue in the Research business. Looking at the profitability, in addition to stronger than expected sales, the good development owes to Research business, as well as improved internal efficiency, supported in part by the adoption of AI tools. Inderes also notes that all business units are expected to grow in 2026. The profitability of the Events business is expected to be weaker than in the previous year due to the sales mix. In H2, we have expected the software business to grow slightly faster than in H1 (23% y/y). Thanks to increased number of research contracts, we expect also the research business growth to accelerate slightly in H2.
Inderes: Sales and sales growth y/y
Source: SEB estimates, company data
Inderes: EBITA and EBITA margin
Source: SEB estimates, company data
| Key figures | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (EURm) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Revenues (m) | 19 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| Adj. EBIT | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| PTP (m) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| EPS | 0.12 | 0.80 | 1.08 | 1.27 |
| EPS (adjusted) | 0.65 | 1.34 | 1.63 | 1.81 |
| DPS | 0.45 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.90 |
| Revenue growth (%) | 3.9 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 5.4 |
| EPS growth (%) | (31.0) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Operating margin (%) | 4.7 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 12.7 |
| Adj. EBIT margin (%) | 11.3 | 12.8 | 14.6 | 15.7 |
| ROCE (%) | 29.7 | 44.0 | 55.2 | 57.2 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA (x) | (0.3) | (0.3) | (0.5) | (0.8) |
| PER (adjusted) | 24.1 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 9.2 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 2.8 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| Free Cash Flow Yield (%) | 4.8 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 9.8 |
| P/BV (x) | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.0 |
| EV/EBIT (x) | 12.5 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 6.8 |
| EV/Sales (x) | 1.41 | 1.31 | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| Source: SEB | ||||
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