BioStock today publishes an independent valuation analysis of Elicera Therapeutics' lead programme, ELC-301, a CD20-directed, iTANK-armoured CAR T-cell therapy for relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The analysis is the first to be published on BioStock's newly launched rNPV platform, BioVal™, and arrives at a risk-adjusted project value (rNPV) of SEK 631M and a company value of SEK 691M. This compares with Elicera's current market cap of SEK 178M – an upside of 288 per cent.
BioVal™, BioStock's in-house valuation tool, is a transparent risk-adjusted project valuation model (rNPV) for drugs in development. The tool enables a fundamental, source-backed valuation of individual assets. The model draws on Probability of Success estimates alongside established industry data from sources including BIO/Informa/QLS, Tufts CSDD and IQVIA. For full transparency, every step in the calculation is both visible and traceable.
The analysis has been commissioned and funded by Elicera and constitutes commissioned research under MiFID II Article 12(3). BioStock acts as an independent analyst and the conclusions are not subject to approval by the company; Elicera has only reviewed the analysis for the accuracy of company-specific information.
The analysis assesses the probability of ELC-301 reaching market approval (Probability of Success) at 15.3 per cent, based on industry data for phase IIa assets with an uplift for immuno-oncology modalities. The probability implied by today's market cap is estimated at 9.6 per cent, which, according to the analysis, points to structural upside potential should the clinical and commercial development follow the model's assumptions.
The analysis specifically highlights the high-dose cohort readout from the phase IIa CARMA study, expected during 2026, as the single most value-driving catalyst in the near term. It is worth noting that the analysis covers only the EU and the UK in its market model, meaning that any future US commercialisation is not priced into the current valuation.
The full analysis is available at https://biostock.se/2026/07/bioval-analysis-elicera-therapeutics-elc-301-valued-at-sek-631m/
This is a press release from BioStock – Connecting Innovation & Capital. https://www.biostock.se/