ExpreS2ion Biotech (One-pager): Pipeline focus on HER2+ breast cancer therapy

Although not a one-product company, the primary shareholder value creation lies in the progression of its ES2B-C001 breast cancer vaccine candidate, given its unmet need within HER2+ breast cancer therapy, and very large addressable market at around USD 10bn[1] annually based on current treatments.

The ES2B-C001 vaccine targets the HER2+ protein, associated with a more aggressive, higher recurrence, and higher mortality rate disease. The ES2B-C001 vaccine targets multiple HER2+ epitope sites vs existing therapies (1-2 epitopes) of the HER2-ECD. Existing monoclonal therapies have been associated with resistance, (which pre-clinical data has overcome), and additional adverse cardiac effects. An elongation of progression free survival (PFS) or reduced cardiac effects would offer a significant advantage.

From a valuation perspective, a DCF-modelling approach is considered appropriate. Based on the assumptions discussed on pages 2 and 3, the model suggests that the market is discounting around a 4% chance of ExpreS2ion Biotech’s success including its ES2B-C001 candidate and technology platform. Since the company’s market value is on par with its cash position the market is attributing little value to ExpreS2ion’s pipeline, platform, and 34% ownership of AdaptVac. Our model indicates that the market implied PoS is below the average benchmark for a Phase I candidate which might be explained by a view that future dilutive capital raises are needed to reach the clinical milestones necessary to secure partnership financing and may also be influenced by very low share liquidity.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from ExpreS2ion Biotech for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Claus Thestrup 8:55, 10/06/2025.