* Continued cautious market
* '26e-'28e EBITA down 5-3%
* Trading at 4.8x NTM EV/EBITA, ~50% below peers
Expectations for Q1'26
B3 Consulting Group will publish its Q1'26 report on 28 April. We expect sales of SEK 324m, implying flat growth held back by an organic decline of 5%. While the market remains soft, activity is picking up, and we see early signs of improving momentum, though project ramp-ups are likely to be pushed further into the year. The "Fit for Growth" cost saving programme will likely continue to support margins, and we expect its benefits to remain visible this year. In Q1, we estimate EBITA of SEK 23m, which would imply a margin of 7.2% (vs. 5.3% Q1'25).
Estimates
We cut sales estimates by 1-3% and EBITA by 5-3% for '26e-'28e, largely due to continued softness in net recruitment data and cautious client behaviour. Beyond the near-term headwinds, we see B3 as well positioned to benefit from structural demand tailwinds in its key service areas, including AI-driven digitalisation, cloud migration, cybersecurity, and system development.
Valuation
On our revised estimates, B3 is trading at 4.9x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~50% below current peer multiples. The company is trading ~40% below its historical EV/FTE multiple, indicating that it currently expects to generate lower earnings per consultant than historically. The outlook for IT consultants continues to be soft, and B3 is in a phase of adjusting headcount to demand.