Berner Industrier Q3e: acceleration in organic growth to continue - ABG

* Q3e sales up 14% y-o-y, 7% organic, supported by order intake* Estimate seasonally strong 9.1% margin, E&E to normalise q-o-q* Optimistic on margin improvements, balance sheet supports M&AQ3 expectationsFor Q3, we forecast that the strong order intake over the past three quarters (+19% y-o-y) will continue to drive an acceleration in organic growth, estimating sales of SEK 247m, up 14% y-o-y, of which 7% organic. The acquisition of Autofric more than offsets a small negative FX effect. On the EBITA margin, we forecast a seasonally strong 9.1% (6.9%), as the E&E margin normalises from an unusually strong Q2, while the T&D margin continues to improve thanks to the operational measures that started yielding clear results in Q2.Estimate changesWe make only very minor estimate changes ahead of the report, driven by updated FX. The impressive Q2 caused us to grow more optimistic on the progress the company is making to improve the T&D margin, and we stick to this view. However, we also remind investors that the company has a history of somewhat volatile margins between quarters, meaning that one should not necessarily expect this improvement to materialise smoothly quarter by quarter.Company valuationOur estimates continue to imply that the company will reach its 9% margin target by '27e, and the acquisition of Autofric was a welcome start of what will hopefully be a more active M&A agenda, something we think the balance sheet still supports, as leverage sits at 1.3x adj. ND/EBIDTA (0.8x lease adj.). The share has returned 5% over the past three months, in line with the broader market, and is now trading at 19x '26e P/E. We adjust our fair value range slightly to SEK 55-85 (50-80).