* Favourable market and good cost control
* We raise our '26-'27 EBITA estimates by 5-6%
* We raise our FVR to SEK 24-37 (20-34)
High-quality beat
Q3 was strong across the board, with 20% organic growth for SEK 260m in sales. The EBITA margin increased from 9% to 10%, which was 2pp higher than we expected. We were especially surprised by the strong growth in the Nordics (24% org. vs. ABGSCe 17%) and the segment gross margin of 41.5%, up 2.5pp y-o-y. The Nordics were boosted by Asker and Baerum in Norway, which invoices ~SEK 10m quarterly, according to management, indicating underlying organic growth in the Nordics of ~15%. UK continues to be driven by service sales demand due to A2D, with installation projects weighing on the GM. The current plan for A2D is to be finished in early Q1'27, and we expect the pace of sales growth to decline in '27e while the GM bounces back to levels >40%.
Earnings trajectory looks encouraging
Careium had previously guided for margin pressure in H1, and hinted towards a normalisation in H2. While we expected the H2'26 EBIT margin to improve y-o-y due to the very soft Q4'25, we did not previously expect Careium to deliver a fully "normalised" H2 margin (compared to e.g. H2'24 of 10%). Given recent events, however, we have now gained more confidence in an H2 margin of 9.4%, estimating a full-year margin of 7.7% (vs. 6% in '25). The opex base has increased this year, but we are encouraged by recent cost control and view an ~8% FY margin as strong given the headwinds in H1.
Trading at 9x '27 EBITA
We make limited organic revisions to '26e-'27e sales, but raise estimates by ~2% p.a. on the back of the report. Our '26e-'27e EBITA estimates are raised by 5-6% on the Nordic GM improvements and continued strong cost control in opex. Our estimates imply '26e-'28e sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs of 10% and 26%. On our updated estimates, the share is trading at 9x '27e EV/EBITA. We raise our FVR to SEK 24-37 (20-34).