* Sales of SEK 61m (-5% vs. ABGSCe), a 3% y-o-y growth * ARR continues to grow, up 5%, and defence up 66% y-o-y * More a scaling story than a turnaround
Q4'25 results
Clavister reported Q4'25 sales of SEK 61m (-5% vs. ABGSCe 64m), implying 3% y-o-y growth, and was somewhat held back by defence delivery postponements. EBITDA came in at SEK 9m, slightly above our expectations, driven by improved operating costs than last year. Reported EBIT was SEK -2m, which was in line with expectations. Net profit came in positive at SEK 18m, which explains the positive EPS for the quarter, mainly drive by the recognised deferred tax asset.
Stable quarter as Clavister continues to scale
We view the quarter as stable rather than weak. Civilian momentum remains solid, with ARR growth of 5%, while the defence business grew 66% y-o-y. Order intake for the full year increased by ~23% to SEK 320m, showing that Clavister continues to win contracts in the defence segment. It is worth noting that the previously postponed deliveries are expected to reverse in 2026.
Valuation and thoughts
On our unrevised estimates, Clavister is trading at 13-9x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e. We continue to see a structural shift in the European cybersecurity and defence market, and we believe Clavister is well positioned to continue taking market share and winning contracts in the coming years. With a strengthened order backlog, improved balance sheet, and increased defence exposure, the case is now less about turnaround and more about execution and scaling.