Clavister: Entering 2026 with improved fundamentals - ABG
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* Softer Q4 numbers due to FX and tough comps
* We raise EBITDA by 6% for '27e
* Trading at 13-9x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, ~30% below peers
Quarter held back by FX and tough comps
Clavister reported Q4'25 sales of SEK 61m, for 3% y-o-y growth, held back by FX headwinds, postponed deliveries and tough comps. Last year's quarter benefited from lifecycle upgrades following the change of business model (from 2021). This created a temporary uplift, and as the effects now roll up we expect growth to normalise and better reflect the underlying business. We expect the postponed defence deliveries to reverse in H1'26e, supporting an additional ~SEK 10m in sales. ARR increased by 5% y-o-y, indicating continued momentum in the civilian business, particularly in the Nordics and Germany. Adj. EBITDA was SEK 11m, a margin of 18%, impacted by mix effects.
Raising EBITDA for 2027e
We cut EBITDA by 3% for 2026e, as we expect slightly higher personnel costs related to the Norwegian defence contract. This is natural given project ramp up and potential hiring needs. Over time, we expect improved operating leverage, with personnel costs continuing declining as a percentage of sales. Looking further out, we raise 2027e EBITDA by 6%, which is supported by improved cost efficiency and scaling effects from both defence and civilian operations.
Valuation and thoughts going forward
Clavister is trading at 13-9x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, ~30% below its peers average. With a stronger balance sheet and a larger order backlog, the company enters 2026 from a clearly improved position. We believe Clavister has good scaling potential, which is supported by large defence contracts and recurring revenues from the civilian segment. We also expect the company to benefit from previous tax losses, meaning no-to-limited tax payments in the coming years. The focus is now on executions, meaning converting backlog into revenues while maintaining margin discipline.
* We raise EBITDA by 6% for '27e
* Trading at 13-9x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, ~30% below peers
Quarter held back by FX and tough comps
Clavister reported Q4'25 sales of SEK 61m, for 3% y-o-y growth, held back by FX headwinds, postponed deliveries and tough comps. Last year's quarter benefited from lifecycle upgrades following the change of business model (from 2021). This created a temporary uplift, and as the effects now roll up we expect growth to normalise and better reflect the underlying business. We expect the postponed defence deliveries to reverse in H1'26e, supporting an additional ~SEK 10m in sales. ARR increased by 5% y-o-y, indicating continued momentum in the civilian business, particularly in the Nordics and Germany. Adj. EBITDA was SEK 11m, a margin of 18%, impacted by mix effects.
Raising EBITDA for 2027e
We cut EBITDA by 3% for 2026e, as we expect slightly higher personnel costs related to the Norwegian defence contract. This is natural given project ramp up and potential hiring needs. Over time, we expect improved operating leverage, with personnel costs continuing declining as a percentage of sales. Looking further out, we raise 2027e EBITDA by 6%, which is supported by improved cost efficiency and scaling effects from both defence and civilian operations.
Valuation and thoughts going forward
Clavister is trading at 13-9x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, ~30% below its peers average. With a stronger balance sheet and a larger order backlog, the company enters 2026 from a clearly improved position. We believe Clavister has good scaling potential, which is supported by large defence contracts and recurring revenues from the civilian segment. We also expect the company to benefit from previous tax losses, meaning no-to-limited tax payments in the coming years. The focus is now on executions, meaning converting backlog into revenues while maintaining margin discipline.