ES Energy Save: Temporary freeze in numbers - ABG
Detta är en aktieanalys producerad av tredje part och reflekterar därför nödvändigtvis ej våra åsikter och värderingar
- Q2 figures in line with pre-announcement
- '25e-'27e sales cut by 11% on softer Q2
- Inventory normalisation and market recovery to support H2’25e
Near-term growth supported by Aira
Q2 sales were SEK 15m (-85% y-o-y, -71% q-o-q vs. ABGSCe 37m) and EBIT SEK -16m (2.8m), in line with the 23 July profit warning. The miss was due to OEM inventory build-up and weak market conditions, leading to delayed orders. We believe OEM sales (-95% y-o-y) declined mainly due to timing effects, following the ramp-up of sales to Aira in prior quarters. We expect inventory levels to gradually normalise, with the Aira partnership remaining the key near-term growth driver. We estimate ~SEK 180m in revenue from the agreement for '25e, supporting higher volumes in H2'25e and positive EBIT in Q4 (we estimate SEK 5m). In addition, recent market activity indicates an uptick in H2'25e, supporting sales activity for ES and its OEM customers. We believe the SEK 25m short-term loan secured in Q3, together with ES' ~SEK 21m cash balance in Q2, should be enough to support near-term financing. However, in order to improve its financial position the company needs to 1) demonstrate improved profitability, and 2) increase its ES-branded sales in order to minimise inventory levels.
- '25e-'27e sales cut by 11% on softer Q2
- Inventory normalisation and market recovery to support H2’25e
Near-term growth supported by Aira
Q2 sales were SEK 15m (-85% y-o-y, -71% q-o-q vs. ABGSCe 37m) and EBIT SEK -16m (2.8m), in line with the 23 July profit warning. The miss was due to OEM inventory build-up and weak market conditions, leading to delayed orders. We believe OEM sales (-95% y-o-y) declined mainly due to timing effects, following the ramp-up of sales to Aira in prior quarters. We expect inventory levels to gradually normalise, with the Aira partnership remaining the key near-term growth driver. We estimate ~SEK 180m in revenue from the agreement for '25e, supporting higher volumes in H2'25e and positive EBIT in Q4 (we estimate SEK 5m). In addition, recent market activity indicates an uptick in H2'25e, supporting sales activity for ES and its OEM customers. We believe the SEK 25m short-term loan secured in Q3, together with ES' ~SEK 21m cash balance in Q2, should be enough to support near-term financing. However, in order to improve its financial position the company needs to 1) demonstrate improved profitability, and 2) increase its ES-branded sales in order to minimise inventory levels.