* Q2e: 6% revenue growth y-o-y
* '26e adj. EBITDA just below the low end of '26 guidance
* Trading ~30% below peers at ~4x '26e EV/EBITDA
World Cup unlikely to be a significant tailwind
We expect Q2 revenue of EUR 26m, implying 6% y-o-y growth. This means that we expect adj. EBITDA of EUR 10m, corresponding to a 38% margin. Listed iGaming companies have provided mixed commentary in relation to the World Cup. However, the sports book performance and corresponding sports margins have largely been a function of which sports book solution an operator uses.. Given that Gentoo has a diverse set of customers, we believe that the sports margin is likely to be broadly in line with the historical average. This is corroborated, for example, by the recent Q2 earnings report from key peer Better Collective. Finally, we expect Gentoo to deliver free cash flow just shy of EUR 4m for the quarter.
Estimate revisions
We trim '26e-'28e EBITDA by 1-2%, as we incorporate somewhat more cautious operator outcome related to the FIFA World Cup. Our new estimates imply that we are just shy of the lower end of the company's '26 guidance for both revenue and EBITDA (guidance is '26 revenue of EUR 105-110m and adj. EBITDA of EUR 49-54m). That said, we expect the company's cash generation to help deleverage the balance sheet, which is a higher priority than revenue growth.
Trading at 4x '26e EV/EBITDA
Gentoo is trading at nearly 4x '26e EV/EBITDA, well below Better Collective (7.4x) but slightly above Gambling.com (3.8x). This means that Gentoo is trading 30% below the average of Better Collective and Gambling.com. It is worth noting that Gentoo Media is trading at a 23% lease-adj. FCF yield excl. M&A for '26e in the context of a deleveraging focus.