Inission: Set for substantial earnings growth - ABG
Detta är en aktieanalys producerad av tredje part och reflekterar därför nödvändigtvis ej våra åsikter och värderingar
* Adj. EBITA margin up 1.7pp as sales grew 15% ex. M&A
* Likely to exceed conservative guidance in '26
* Belief that earnings trough is behind us reinforced
Q4 results
Inission delivered a strong Q4, growing 15% y-o-y ex. M&A and achieving an adjusted EBITA margin of 6.9%, beating our expectations by 4% on orders, 6% on sales and 15% on adj. EBITA. There were restructuring costs of SEK 6.8m in the quarter, mainly in Enedo, but these will, according to management, be gone starting in Q1. The effect of the cost cuts seems very promising given Enedo's adjusted margin of 5.2% in the quarter. Note that both segments' sales now include significant intra-group sales (which are then eliminated at the group level) following the move of the Tunis factory from the Enedo to the Inission segment, partially contributing to their substantial y-o-y increases. There was also a SEK 21m non-cash financial one-off related to the early acquisition of the remaining shares in AXXE, which we have adjusted for.
Estimate changes
The company guided for sales of SEK 2.3-2.5bn in '26 and an EBITA margin above 6%. During the earnings call, the CEO gave the impression that this guidance is, if anything, conservative, like we expected. We raise '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2-5%, now forecasting sales of SEK 2.42bn with an adj. EBITA margin of 6.8% in '26e.
Outlook and valuation
Our belief that the trough in Inission's earnings is behind us, which we expressed following the Q3 report, is now reinforced by another strong report. The book-to-bill remains solid, and the growing order book is being converted into sales growth, which in turn is yielding improved profitability, a trend we believe will continue, especially given cost savings coming through in Enedo at the same time as sales growth is set to accelerate, backed up by its strong book-to-bill. The share is now trading at 11x-8x '26e-'28e P/E, compared to peers at 16x-13x.
* Likely to exceed conservative guidance in '26
* Belief that earnings trough is behind us reinforced
Q4 results
Inission delivered a strong Q4, growing 15% y-o-y ex. M&A and achieving an adjusted EBITA margin of 6.9%, beating our expectations by 4% on orders, 6% on sales and 15% on adj. EBITA. There were restructuring costs of SEK 6.8m in the quarter, mainly in Enedo, but these will, according to management, be gone starting in Q1. The effect of the cost cuts seems very promising given Enedo's adjusted margin of 5.2% in the quarter. Note that both segments' sales now include significant intra-group sales (which are then eliminated at the group level) following the move of the Tunis factory from the Enedo to the Inission segment, partially contributing to their substantial y-o-y increases. There was also a SEK 21m non-cash financial one-off related to the early acquisition of the remaining shares in AXXE, which we have adjusted for.
Estimate changes
The company guided for sales of SEK 2.3-2.5bn in '26 and an EBITA margin above 6%. During the earnings call, the CEO gave the impression that this guidance is, if anything, conservative, like we expected. We raise '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2-5%, now forecasting sales of SEK 2.42bn with an adj. EBITA margin of 6.8% in '26e.
Outlook and valuation
Our belief that the trough in Inission's earnings is behind us, which we expressed following the Q3 report, is now reinforced by another strong report. The book-to-bill remains solid, and the growing order book is being converted into sales growth, which in turn is yielding improved profitability, a trend we believe will continue, especially given cost savings coming through in Enedo at the same time as sales growth is set to accelerate, backed up by its strong book-to-bill. The share is now trading at 11x-8x '26e-'28e P/E, compared to peers at 16x-13x.