* Q3e: Sales of SEK 580m and adj. EBITA margin of 7.3% (6.5%)
* Power recovery continues alongside EMS momentum
* Trading at 13/10x '26e/'28e P/E vs Nordic EMS peers
Q3 expectations
We expect Inission's order intake to continue to develop positively, for a R12m book-to-bill of 1.08 despite billings increasing in the last quarters, albeit at a slower pace than in H1. We expect Q3'26 sales of SEK 580m, up 9% y-o-y, driven by 7% organic growth and FX tailwinds of 2%. We forecast an adj. EBITA margin of 7.3% (6.5% Q3'25, 6.4% Q2'26). On a segment level, we expect Inission (EMS) sales of SEK 535m at a 7.0% adj. EBITA margin (7.6%) and Inission Power (OEM) sales of SEK 117m at a 4.0% margin (-7.4%), with Power's recovery continuing against weak comparables throughout H2. We expect defence and data centres to remain the strongest end-markets, consistent with the demand dynamics seen in H1. We note that larger defence orders tend to be project-driven, and some customers slowed in Q2 after a strong Q1, with activity expected to pick up and be supportive again in Q3. We do not expect the PCB disruptions in April and May to have a material impact on Q3, as Inission caught up on most of the shortfall in June and currently sees no further deterioration in lead times or prices.
Minor estimate changes
Following a change of analyst, we make only minor adjustments to segment margin assumptions, lowering '26e adj. EBITA by 0.6%.
Trading at 13/10x '26e/'28e P/E
The extensive order book, with average lead times of approximately six months, provides a reliable revenue visibility into H2. We continue to believe that there is upside to the guidance of monthly revenue of SEK 210-220 for FY26 sales of SEK 2,300-2,500m at a >6% adj. EBITA margin, with R12M sales of SEK 2,487m and a margin of 6.7%. We forecast SEK 2,599m at 6.8% for FY'26. The share is currently trading at 13/10x '26e/'28e P/E, versus Nordic EMS peers at 18x/14x.