* Adj. EBIT well above estimates at SEK 45m * Underlying performance strong, but keep an eye out for ME conflict * Consensus adj. EBIT revisions likely up low-single-digits
A beat where it matters
The Q1 report was slightly softer than expected on sales, but more importantly well above our earnings estimates. Sales amounted to SEK 893m (-2% vs ABGSC 909m), for an organic growth of -1.3% (-1.7pp vs ABGSC 0.4%). The sales drag came primarily from contract manufacturing (-1.9% organic) due to terminated contracts post the Spain fire, and licensed brands (-2.2%). Own consumer brands were roughly flat organically (0.1%), with organic food doing well but health foods and consumer health lagging (partly a timing issue as Swedish grocery trade shifted its launch window from Q1 to Q2). On earnings, both the gross margin and adj. EBIT margin came in above our expectations (~1pp higher, respectively), driven partly by product mix and the now fully implemented cost savings programme. Adj. EBIT came in at SEK 45m (19% vs ABGSC 38m), for a margin of 5.0% (ABGSC 4.2%). The NRI of SEK 56m is a previously announced insurance compensation. Free cash flow (ex. M&A) came in at SEK 32m (vs. ABGSCe 43m), and was positively affected by the insurance payment. However, this was offset by inventory build-up related Middle East supply uncertainty, Q2 launch preparations, and a notable spike in receivables from late March invoicing/payment timing. The WC build-up should normalise in Q2.
Green shoots, one cloud on the horizon
We are encouraged to see South Europe return to profitability (SEK 3m vs. 0m Q1'25). Moreover, the softness in the Nordics is expected to reverse in Q2, due to the shifted launch window within Swedish health/consumer. Still no news on whether Midsona will rebuild the Spanish factory, but a decision will be made in H1'26. We are also excited about Q2 due to the Risenta acquisition. On a less positive note, management flags potential cost headwinds in H2'26 due to volatile energy and transport costs (with potential raw material pass-through effects), due to current geopolitical events. At this time, we do not interpret this risk as immediate or material, but the longevity and development of the ME conflict is something to look out for.
Likely positive consensus EBIT estimate revisions
The share, which has been strong into numbers, is trading at ~10x-7x '26e-'28e EV/EBITA on our unrevised estimates. Our initial understanding of the report as well as a mechanical calculation suggest that consensus' adj. EBIT estimates for '26e-'28e could be positive within a mid-single-digit range. However, the beat might be partly offset on a FY basis, on caution due to potential raw material headwinds. The company will host a presentation of the Q1 report at CET 11.00 (link).