Nexam Chemical: Seasonally impacted quarter - ABG

* Report out on 17 October* Q3e sales SEK 48m, EBIT SEK -0.4m (-2.5m)* Two major Reactive Recycling customers in steady-state productionQ3 expectationsWe estimate Q3 sales of SEK 48m, +8% y-o-y but -12% q-o-q. Q3e should be seasonally weak due to summer shutdowns, but we expect the underlying demand in Nexam's segments to remain intact. We anticipate these shutdowns to have primarily affected Performance Masterbatch, but for the segment to still be stable in the quarter (we estimate growth of +1.6% y-o-y). For Performance Chemicals we estimate +17% growth y-o-y and for Recycling to continue to offset weaker growth in PET foam. Reactive Recycling grew by +70% q-o-q in Q2'25 (albeit from low levels), and we expect this positive trend to continue into Q3e. On EBIT, we expect the company to approach break-even, and we forecast SEK -0.4m (-2.5m).Estimate changes and outlookWe lower our '25e-'27e sales by 1-2% and total '25e-'27e EBIT by SEK 7m ahead of the Q3 report. We expect the company to be near break-even EBIT in the quarter and for the company to reach positive earnings in FY'26e. During the quarter Nexam communicated that its two major customers within the Recycling segment are now fully operational and have deliveries reaching a steady run-rate.Long-term potential intactWe still find the company's niche in Reactive Recycling attractive, believing it to represent a good growth opportunity, driven by cost savings and environmentally friendly solutions. The segment accounted for >10% of Nexam's total sales in Q2 already at an early stage of commercialisation. We think the strong growth trajectory in the segment should offset the weaker-developing PET foam segment. The share has returned -5% L3M (vs. peers at -1%, OMXSALLS at +2%) and is currently trading at 1.6x-1.1x '25e-'27e EV/Sales.