OssDsign: Encouraging core despite near-term headwinds - ABG

* 38% y-o-y organic sales growth in Q3'25e* EBIT forecasts cut by 4.0-6.1% for '25e-'27e* Q3'25 results due 4 NovemberQ3'25 expectationsWe expect OssDsign to report Q3 sales of SEK 46.2m and EBIT of SEK -8.5m, implying continued solid sales momentum for Catalyst in the US with 38% organic sales growth. The sales level in Q3 is expected to have been negatively impacted to some degree by the unusually high sales level in Q2, as one customer placed a relatively large order of approximately SEK 1.5m on one of the last days of the quarter, making the sequential comparison into Q3 look flattish. We expect the underlying growth to have been driven by continued improved market access. This should come as a result of adding new hospitals and deepening penetration at existing hospitals by broadening the base of surgeons using Catalyst. All in all, we forecast Q3 organic sales growth of 38%, adding up to SEK 46.2m and EBIT of SEK -8.5m with a gross margin of 95.5% (96.9% in Q3'24). We expect a small increase in opex vs. Q2'25 as the company continues to invest in R&D and its sales and marketing team.Estimate changesWe have updated our forecasts ahead of Q3, cutting EBIT by 4.0-4.7% for '25e-'27e on updated FX and some fine-tuning of our operational assumptions. We are now forecasting 49% organic sales growth in FY'25e, down from 50%, but leave our organic sales growth assumption of 30% unchanged for FY'26e-'27e.Fair value range revised to SEK 11-18 (12-18)We revise our fair value range, based on our updated forecasts, to SEK 11-18 (12-18) ahead of the Q3 results. We arrive at our fair value range using a DCF model with a terminal growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 10%.