* Strong Q1, but orders muted in seasonally slow Q1
* Small EBIT revisions
* We expect more orders ahead; 19x '26e EV/EBIT
Strong quarter, but muted orders – as expected
In terms of sales and earnings, Ovzon started 2026 with another strong quarter, driven by recent orders. Sales grew +189% y-o-y to SEK 260m, of which SATCOM accounted for 72%. Although this was 2% below our SEK 267m forecast, this was mainly due to slightly lower terminals sales, which tend to be lumpy. However, margins on terminals are lower, so the EBIT shortfall versus our forecast is only 1% (but -9% vs. FactSet consensus). EBIT was positive for the fourth consecutive quarter at SEK 80m (vs. SEK -16m in Q1'25). While the reported figures were good, orders were, as expected, subdued in the seasonally slow first quarter. Ovzon's customer concentration is high and lead times are long, impacting quarterly orders. Nonetheless, we expect this to improve over the coming quarters, and our conviction has been strengthened following the return of the US DoW, which had not placed an order since August 2024. Here, we also expect the SSC contract, which ended 1 March, to return.
Slightly negative sales revisions
Given the recent slow order activity, which we see as no cause for concern, we take a slightly more cautious view on our sales 2026 assumptions, reducing them by 2%. Nonetheless, our EBIT forecasts are largely unchanged due to higher GM assumptions.
Ovzon-3 only at ~40% utilisation
Demand for Ovzon's services is strong, and our estimates suggest that its proprietary satellite, Ovzon-3, is only utilised at ~40%. As seen in recent numbers, operational leverage is particularly high, which bodes well for the recent margin expansion to continue. The balance sheet is in good shape, and we expect to receive more details on a potential new satellite project before the end of the year. The stock is +35% YTD and is trading at 19x '26e EV/EBIT on our current estimates.