* 8% organic growth, sales -2% vs cons but adj. EBITA +12%
* Strong demand but highlights that long lead times could delay near-term deliveries
* Estimates likely +2-4%, share neutral to slight outperformance
Q3 details
Sales SEK 1,180m (-3% vs ABG 1,220m, -2% vs cons 1,198m). Adj. EBITA 112m (10% vs ABG 101m, 12% vs cons 100m), Adj. EBITA margin 9.5% (ABG 8.3%, cons 8.3%). Organic growth 8% (ABG 10%, no cons), of which system sales 13% (ABG 15%) and services 4% (ABG 5%). Adj. EBITA +47% y-o-y (ABG +33%, cons +31%). OCF SEK 132m (-28m) is good, putting YTD OCF up 149% to SEK 383m (154m).
Gross margin and lower opex behind beat
Beat mainly driven by higher gross margin, due to positive mix. Market continues to be driven by high prices and long lead times for memory components, while AI is driving demand for data storage and data protection. Nordics is the strongest region once again. Cost program in 2026 behind earnings growth. Proact expects high memory prices throughout 2027 and lead times to remain long, which could affect system sales negatively near-term on postponed deliveries. Long-term demand is however strengthening. West and Central segments to merge ahead, driving further margin recovery.
Estimates up slightly
We expect consensus to make small positive estimate revisions around 2-4% driven by the better gross margin and lower opex, while putting some caution to Q4e system sales due to longer lead times, and share likely neutral to slight outperformance today. Conf call at CET 9.30.