* Minor deviations amplified by break-even earnings
* Slower TPV growth drives earnings downgrades
* Merchant momentum supports growth, but capital needs remain
Minor deviations amplified by break-even earnings
Qliro reported operating profit of SEK 0.2m (SEK 2.6m below ABGSC and SEK 25.3m below FactSet consensus). Total income came in at SEK 120.2m and operating costs at SEK 93.4m, which were in line with our estimates. NCI was SEK 2.7m below our expectations and credit losses SEK 2.6m above. TPV grew 18% y-o-y and BNPL volumes increased 27%. Given Qliro's break-even earnings profile, small absolute deviations translate into significant percentage differences at the operating profit level. Management reiterated its FY26 profitability outlook.
Slower TPV growth weighs on earnings estimates
Following Q3, we lower our TPV growth assumptions for 2026e-28e to 26%, 22% and 21%, respectively. The revisions primarily reflect previously announced merchant churn and delayed Enterprise agreements, which are expected to weigh on near-term growth. Management expects net revenue growth to slow before recovering to at least 15% during H2'27, supported by continued SME momentum. Consequently, we reduce our total income estimates by 1-4% and operating profit estimates by 29-62% for 2026e-2028e.
Merchant growth increases focus on capital generation
Qliro's merchant base increased by 90% y-o-y to 867, with SME accounting for over half of TPV growth. Continued merchant expansion and cost discipline support improved scalability as transaction volumes grow. However, sustained profitability and internal capital generation remain essential as the loan book expands, placing increasing demands on regulatory capital. The stock currently trades at 0.82x 2027e P/BV, with future earnings growth dependent on continued merchant expansion, stable credit quality and disciplined cost control.