Skolon: New contracts temporarily weigh on results - ABG
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Sales -7% vs. ABGSCe at SEK 63m
* International expansion weighs on earnings* Likely negative consensus estimate revisionsQ3'25 reportSkolon delivered net sales of SEK 63m (-7% vs ABGSCe 68m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth of 18% (-10pp vs ABGSCe 28%). Sales were negatively affected by the fact that new users joined later than usual relative to the start of the school year, compared to previous years. This temporarily puts a damper on growth and ARPPU, as these users are later to start paying for partner tools. We assess that this sale mix affected the gross margin positively, which increased to 20.6% (-0.6pp vs ABGSCe 21.2%). EBITDA amounted to SEK 2.6m (-1.6m vs ABGSCe 4.2m), for a margin of 4%, compared to 5% in Q3'24. EBITDA was negatively affected by the strategic expansion into Germany, as Skolon has opened a new office in Germany and made recruitments. However, EBITDA YTD amounts to SEK 1.5m compared to -0.8m YTD Q3'24. ARPPU came in at SEK 179 (1% vs ABGSCe 177), as the number of paying users amounted to SEK 994k (-3% vs ABGSCe 1,022k).Thoughts and outlookWhile the report was softer than expected, we believe that Q3'25 is highly affected by the timing of the two large contracts signed later than usual in Q2, and that the full effect on sales from these users will come into Q4. We further note that the Swedish operations yield an EBITDA margin of 7% (vs. -6% for its other, newer, markets), and that is confirmatory of the company's scaling opportunity. Internationally, the growth expansion opportunity is significant. Moreover, Skolon has officially launched Skolon Guardians during the quarter, which we believe will be ARPPU-enhancing, as our understanding is that schools require a higher tier account to access Skolon Guardians. The CEO commented that growth has been adversely affected by FX, and that the growing share of international sales will lead Skolon to report FX-effect starting 2026.Consensus estimate revisions and valuationThe share is down ~5% YTD and is trading at 4x-3x EV/Sales '25e-'26e on our unrevised estimates. The mechanical impact on '25e-'26e consensus sales should be negative within a l.s.d. range, and that EBITDA could come down significantly for '25e, as the majority of earnings are typically made during Q3 and the miss was sizeable.
* International expansion weighs on earnings* Likely negative consensus estimate revisionsQ3'25 reportSkolon delivered net sales of SEK 63m (-7% vs ABGSCe 68m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth of 18% (-10pp vs ABGSCe 28%). Sales were negatively affected by the fact that new users joined later than usual relative to the start of the school year, compared to previous years. This temporarily puts a damper on growth and ARPPU, as these users are later to start paying for partner tools. We assess that this sale mix affected the gross margin positively, which increased to 20.6% (-0.6pp vs ABGSCe 21.2%). EBITDA amounted to SEK 2.6m (-1.6m vs ABGSCe 4.2m), for a margin of 4%, compared to 5% in Q3'24. EBITDA was negatively affected by the strategic expansion into Germany, as Skolon has opened a new office in Germany and made recruitments. However, EBITDA YTD amounts to SEK 1.5m compared to -0.8m YTD Q3'24. ARPPU came in at SEK 179 (1% vs ABGSCe 177), as the number of paying users amounted to SEK 994k (-3% vs ABGSCe 1,022k).Thoughts and outlookWhile the report was softer than expected, we believe that Q3'25 is highly affected by the timing of the two large contracts signed later than usual in Q2, and that the full effect on sales from these users will come into Q4. We further note that the Swedish operations yield an EBITDA margin of 7% (vs. -6% for its other, newer, markets), and that is confirmatory of the company's scaling opportunity. Internationally, the growth expansion opportunity is significant. Moreover, Skolon has officially launched Skolon Guardians during the quarter, which we believe will be ARPPU-enhancing, as our understanding is that schools require a higher tier account to access Skolon Guardians. The CEO commented that growth has been adversely affected by FX, and that the growing share of international sales will lead Skolon to report FX-effect starting 2026.Consensus estimate revisions and valuationThe share is down ~5% YTD and is trading at 4x-3x EV/Sales '25e-'26e on our unrevised estimates. The mechanical impact on '25e-'26e consensus sales should be negative within a l.s.d. range, and that EBITDA could come down significantly for '25e, as the majority of earnings are typically made during Q3 and the miss was sizeable.