* 16% organic growth in Q3e
* Norwegian and UK users added, but revenue likely to land in Q4
* Continuing its international penetration
More users, revenue follows later
We expect strong user growth but a softer revenue quarter. Press releases in the period point to at least 45,000 new users, mainly from Rogaland in Norway and the UK school groups. For Q3, we expect sales of SEK 75m, up 19% y-o-y and in line with last year’s growth. Q3 is the seasonal peak for tool purchases ahead of the school year, and as tools carry a lower margin than platform revenue, the gross margin stays below the level of other quarters; we estimate 24% (23% in Q3'25), or 21% less capitalised work. Platform revenue from contracts starting late in the quarter is recognised over time, so we expect most of it to land in Q4. On EBITDA, we expect a positive quarter, as last year, at SEK 4m and a margin of 5.4%, supported by Sweden.
Minor changes to estimates
We only make minor changes to our sales estimates and expect '26 sales of SEK 250m, up 25% y-o-y (SEK 200m in '25). We lower our '26e EBITDA by SEK 2m, to SEK 7m, or a ~22% reduction from a small base.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at 8-5x '26e-'27e EV/gross profit (GP less capitalised work). In the UK, agreements covering 60 schools were signed at the start of Q3, but as the school year begins in September, we expect most of the revenue to land in Q4. Germany is still small, although six new local partnerships signed in the quarter broaden the offering and support the longer-term case. We see larger customers on the platform, the UK ramp-up and early progress in Germany as the key revenue drivers from here, even if quarterly revenue can be lumpy depending on when contracts start.