*Q2e top line flat q-o-q, EBITDA of NOK 3m
* Pricer transition a temporary drag, offset by Vusion momentum
* Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
Q2e EBITDA of NOK 3m
Q1'26 delivered revenues of NOK 342m, with strong growth in UK & Ireland (+93%) and Spain (+13%) offset by weakness in Norway and Sweden (lower ESL deliveries and the Pricer/Vusion transition). We expect more of the same for Q2, and pencil in revenues of NOK 343m. We pencil in a gross margin of ~44%, which compares to ~45% in Q1'26. This yields EBITDA of NOK 3m. The key focus in '26 is the new partnership with Vusion, and we like that StrongPoint and Vusion have landed a contract to digitalise Coop Estonia (EUR 8m contract, set to start H2'26). We view this as a validation of the partnership.
Pricer transition temporary drag, offset by Vusion momentum
The Pricer recurring run-off will remain a headwind through '26: the rolling 12-month ESL licence and service base falls from NOK 52m at end-2025 to zero by end-2026, with a NOK 10m y-o-y hit already in Q1. The offset is coming but will take time. Vusion is a far broader platform than ESL alone, spanning EdgeSense, the Captana shelf-edge camera and retail media, and the Coop Estonia win is early proof. We expect recurring revenue to trough in '26, with the Vusion base scaling from H2.
Pipeline building; fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
Q2 will not be a step-change quarter, but likely a stable one. The pipeline is building, with new contracts announced in '26 (Coop Estonia, Iceland Foods, NorgesGruppen, AutoStore projects, and a US order picking project). The path to sustained profitability will have ups and downs, and the Sainsbury's rollout moving slower than expected is a reminder that large projects carry execution risk. That said, things seem to be slowly moving in the right direction for StrongPoint. Our DCF indicates an equity value of ~NOK 650m, and we see a fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share.