* Strong FM&WT EBIT margin (19% vs. ABGSCe 15%)
* We trim our margin estimates for Decommissioning and Scandpower
* ...but FM&WT margin upgrades partly offset cuts
Q4 results
Studsvik reported Q4 sales of SEK 223m (-4% vs. ABGSCe) and EBIT of SEK 18m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 23m). The print was mixed, but FM&WT once again stood out, delivering a strong EBIT margin of 19% (vs. ABGSCe 15%). This supports our view of a clear step-up in FY'25 profitability (16% EBIT margin vs. 1% in ’24 and 13% in ’23) as efficiency initiatives continue to take effect. However, Decommissioning remained the weak spot, with tougher competition and pricing pressure driving sales 17% below our estimate and EBIT of SEK 9m below our forecast. Scandpower also came in softer, with sales down 15% y-o-y due to seasonality and tough comps.
Estimate changes and outlook
Following the Q4 report, we cut ’26e-’27e sales by 3% and EBIT by 4-3%, respectively. The downgrade is driven by lower Decommissioning sales and margin assumptions due to continued competition and pricing pressure. We now expect ’26e-’27e margins of 4-5% (previously 5-6%). Management remains constructive on the segment’s long-term outlook, however, and continues to guide for a gradual margin recovery through ’26e, supported by several initiatives. We also trim our Scandpower EBIT margin estimates, reflecting an assumption of lower margins in BlackStarTech. In contrast, we raise our ’26e-’27e FM&WT EBIT margin assumptions to 16-17% (15% previously), which partly offsets the reductions in the other two segments.
In a good strategic position
Although lead times are long, we continue to believe that Studsvik is in an interesting strategic position as more countries increasingly adopt nuclear power as part of their sustainable energy solutions. The share has returned +32% L3M (vs. peers at -7%, OMXSALLS +8%) and is currently trading at 38x-33x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT.