* Q3e EBITA +11% y-o-y to SEK 88m
* We raise '27e EBITA 2% on Svedbergs savings* We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 57-77
We expect EBITA +11% y-o-y in Q3
We expect Q3 to be dictated by 1) tough comps in segment Nordics, driven by an expanded ROT deduction scheme in H2'25. We forecast a 4% organic decline for the segment in Q3'26; 2) The well-communicated logistics-related issues in Roper Rhodes (UK). UK EBITA margins declined by 180bp y-o-y in Q2, of which half related to logistics. We forecast a 200bp decline y-o-y in Q3, expecting some extra costs for e.g. freight; 3) UBC Group's first full quarter as part of Svedbergs Group, where we expect it to add SEK 81m in sales and 15pp to Group growth. All in all, we forecast net sales of SEK 624m, +18% y-o-y (of which 2pp organic). We expect dual logistics costs in the UK and the inclusion of dilutive UBC to weigh on margins for 1pp lower EBITA margins y-o-y. Q3'26e EBITA of SEK 88m is +11% y-o-y.
'26e EBITA cut 1%, '27e up 2%
We raise '27e/'28e EBITA by 2%/2%, driven primarily by the initiated cost savings programmes in Svedbergs. We do not expect Nordics EBITA margins of 15% until beyond 2028 without a broader improvement in markets, and we take a cautious view despite targeted savings of SEK 25m. We keep our UK org. growth forecasts unchanged, as CPA forecasts for RM&I are unchanged since May (at market growth of -8% for '26e). We expect UK to weigh on y-o-y profitability until YE'26, after which point the new warehouse segment should contribute positively.
We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 57-77
We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 57-77 on limited estimate revisions. This range corresponds to 10.4x-14x '27e P/E, the upper half of the company's L5Y trading range of 8x-14x NTM. We align with the upper half due to Svedbergs' now-larger size, better market outlook and strong M&A track record. The current 13x/10x P/E '26e/'27e can be compared to a Nordic peer median 11x P/E '27e.