Tempest Security: Guarding the core - ABG

* Q3: +24% sales growth, 1.3% adj. EBIT margin* '25e-'27e adj. EBIT up 29-3%* Continues to show improvementsAnother step forwardTempest continues to deliver improvements, with sales 13% and EBIT SEK 1.1m ahead of ABGSCe in Q3. The performance was a result of the significant focus on the core business that the new CEO (although he is the founder of the company and was CEO until '22) has been keen to improve. Guarding grew sales by 35% and EBITDA from SEK 2.7m to 9.7m. A solid improvement, but we believe there is more potential as planning and staffing can be more efficient. The strong growth was a result of an establishment with a new client, and while the establishment has increased personnel expenses, this is now starting to stabilise which will improve margins ahead. Risk Solutions grew 7% organically, and improved its margin from 1.5% in Q3'24 to 5.6% in Q3'25, mostly due to Denmark. Looking forward, management pointed to good demand, and with its increased focus on the core business, we think Tempest is well positioned to capture the momentum.'25e sales up 3% and adj. EBIT up 29%We raise our '25e sales by 3% on the good performance and momentum in Guarding. We expect the performance to continue as Tempest maintains its core business focus and efficiency improvements, while Denmark and the UK are also making progress. Q3 is Tempest's strongest quarter, but we expect the development to continue in the right direction.Focus on core operationsWe believe the company has taken important steps throughout the year with the divestment of the US and the turnaround in Denmark. There are further efficiencies to be gained from the newly signed contracts in Guarding, as profitability typically increases gradually after the initial start-up period. This is because the additional costs associated with extra hiring decrease, planning and efficiency improve and Tempest can sell additional services that improve profitability.