Xplora Technologies: Grandma clicks, the revenue sticks - ABG
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* Strong early data point with 25% conversion rate for Doro in D2C* ... we lift conversion rate to 12% (8%), raising '28e EBITDA +17%* EV/EBIT of 19x in '25e, but drops to 6.8x in '28e
Solid Q3 with good gross margin
Xplora delivered a solid Q3 report with revenue of NOK 510m (-4% vs ABGSCe) and adj. EBITDA of NOK 76m, 2% above ABGSCe of NOK 75m. The gross margin was particularly strong at 51.6% vs. ABGSCe at 47.5%, driven by new products with lower COGS. But the most interesting news in the report, in our view, was Xplora stating that the subscriber conversion rate for Doro now has increased to 25% in Nordic D2C channels, up from 13% in Q2. This is a very positive data point indicating that Xplora is on track to achieve a solid overall conversion rate.
Higher conversion rate drives higher estimates for '27e-'28e
With ~1.2m Doro phones sold annually, converting Doro customers to recurring subscribers is the key value driver for Xplora. Doro Connect should be live on the web in all markets by end Q1'26 and retail roll-out will follow from H1'16 onwards. In terms of estimate changes, we have increased the amount that we expect Xplora to spend on customer acquisition costs (CAC) in the senior segment (product discounting and kickback to retailers). We calculate a very high LTV/CAC on these investments, which means that these are very beneficial for long-term shareholder value creation. Combined with a strong initial conversion rate, this leads us to lift our expectation for the Doro conversion rate from 8% to 12%. We also lift the gross margin from 50% to 52%. This reduces '26e EBITDA by 3%, but increases '27e by 4% and '28e by 17%.
Fair value range of NOK 40-71/share
On our estimates, Xplora is now trading at 19.4x EV/EBIT in '25e, which drops to 6.8x in '28e. Our DCF scenarios point to NOK 40-71/share.
Solid Q3 with good gross margin
Xplora delivered a solid Q3 report with revenue of NOK 510m (-4% vs ABGSCe) and adj. EBITDA of NOK 76m, 2% above ABGSCe of NOK 75m. The gross margin was particularly strong at 51.6% vs. ABGSCe at 47.5%, driven by new products with lower COGS. But the most interesting news in the report, in our view, was Xplora stating that the subscriber conversion rate for Doro now has increased to 25% in Nordic D2C channels, up from 13% in Q2. This is a very positive data point indicating that Xplora is on track to achieve a solid overall conversion rate.
Higher conversion rate drives higher estimates for '27e-'28e
With ~1.2m Doro phones sold annually, converting Doro customers to recurring subscribers is the key value driver for Xplora. Doro Connect should be live on the web in all markets by end Q1'26 and retail roll-out will follow from H1'16 onwards. In terms of estimate changes, we have increased the amount that we expect Xplora to spend on customer acquisition costs (CAC) in the senior segment (product discounting and kickback to retailers). We calculate a very high LTV/CAC on these investments, which means that these are very beneficial for long-term shareholder value creation. Combined with a strong initial conversion rate, this leads us to lift our expectation for the Doro conversion rate from 8% to 12%. We also lift the gross margin from 50% to 52%. This reduces '26e EBITDA by 3%, but increases '27e by 4% and '28e by 17%.
Fair value range of NOK 40-71/share
On our estimates, Xplora is now trading at 19.4x EV/EBIT in '25e, which drops to 6.8x in '28e. Our DCF scenarios point to NOK 40-71/share.