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We attended Rovio’s Q3 mid-quarter meeting for sell-side analysts today, which was hosted by IR Timo Rahkonen. The message conveyed by the company was broadly in line with our estimates and daily app store ranking data from data.ai.
Rovio's Q2 revenue was 5% below Infront consensus, whereas adjusted EBIT was in line.
Rovio’s Q2 revenue of EUR 78.4m came in 5% below consensus and 4% below our estimate whereas adjusted EBIT was bang in line at EUR 11.3m. Games gross bookings grew -6.5% y/y organically (+11% in Q1).
Rovio will publish its Q2 report on 11 August at 9:00 EET. For Q2, we expect Games revenue to decrease by 4% q/q (+19% y/y), driven by the lack of releases from Ruby Games and sequentially lower UA spend for AB Journey.
Rovio's performance has exceeded our expectations for three consecutive quarters, and the recent CMD also suggested the company’s focus and execution have improved. However, sequentially lower Games revenue signals a somewhat soft Q2 report.
We attended Rovio’s Q2 mid-quarter meeting for sell-side analysts on Friday hosted by IR Timo Rahkonen, CEO Alexandre Pelletier-Normand and CFO René Lindell.
Rovio arranged a CMD yesterday (11 May) in Stockholm, providing an update on its strategy and financial targets as well as deep dives into the Angry Birds brand and technology platform Beacon.
The Q1 results were testament to Rovio's strong execution, with recent growth initiatives (AB Journey and Ruby Games) bearing fruit and its largest game, high-margin AB2, continuing to grow.
Rovio reported an extremely strong set of Q1 numbers with 6% beat on the top-line and an adjusted EBIT of EUR 10.0m versus Infront consensus of EUR 3.5m and our estimate of EUR 3.1m.
Ahead of Rovio's Q1 report, we adjust our estimates mainly for FX tailwinds from the stronger USD. For Q1, we expect Rovio to demonstrate strong growth on the back of continued good momentum for its largest games and the global launch of AB Journey.