Aspo: Shipping market outlook could remain uncertain - Nordea

Net sales were in line with our expectation for Q1, with adjusted EBITA as much as 8% (EUR 0.7m) above our forecast. Synergies and improvements in efficiency supported the Leipurin and Telko segments in Q1, but the ESL Shipping segment suffered from weak volumes and low shipping yields. Aspo claims that the chances of achieving the midpoint of its full-year EBITA guidance range of EUR 35-45m have not diminished during the last three months. Our full-year estimates are still below the EBITA guidance range midpoint of EUR 40m. We argue that the outlook for the dry bulk market looks weak, and Telko's end prices could decline in the near term. Our estimates still point to a fair value range of EUR 6.3-7.7 per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.