Continued headwinds in Denmark and Germany in Q3
Underlying '24e-'25e EBITA cut 12-9%, but neutral incl. IPO M&A
Share is trading at 7.1x-3.9x EV/EBITA on '23e-'24e
Gift Cards underperformed again while core Loyalty grew
Poor performance in MBXP continued to weigh on adj. EBITA for Gift Cards in Q3 (SEK -1.9m compared to SEK 4.1m last year). EBITA in Loyalty was also down y-o-y (SEK 14.3m vs. SEK 16.0m), primarily due to temporarily weaker sales for high-margin clients in Prämie Direkt while the 'core' Awardit Sweden grew 12% y-o-y with good margins. Group adj. EBITA came in at SEK 12m (-50% vs. ABGSCe 24m). We expect MBXP to turn profitable in Q4 but only generate SEK ~6m in EBITA compared to SEK ~16m in Q4'22. We also think the sales mix in Prämie will continue to impact profitability negatively in Q4. On the other hand, higher organic EBITA for 'core' Awardit (solid Eurobonus sales and growth in large accounts), seasonally strong EBITA for Connex and the integration of IPO should be positive factors, supporting Q4e EBITA of SEK 68m, up 19% y-o-y. Connex should be the biggest contributor to the y-o-y growth in Q4e as we expect +90% of its annual EBITA (SEK ~20m) to come in Q4 due to seasonality.