* Sales +4% and adj. EBITA -26% vs. consensus
* Consensus EBITA estimates likely down by high single-digits
* B3 Poland margin supportive despite soft revenue
Q1'26 report
B3 reported Q1'26 sales of SEK 305m (-6% vs. ABGSCe 324m, +4% vs. FactSet consensus 293m), representing an organic decline of 13%. The organic decline was principally driven by fewer consultants and subcontractors. More specifically, this was partly due revenue loss from Webstep (-5pp impact) and B3 Poland. However, B3 Norway was quite the opposite, with growing revenue but weak profitability. Adj. EBITA was roughly SEK 13m (-44% vs. ABGSCe 23m, -26% vs. consensus 18m), representing a margin of 4.3%, which was a bit softer than both we and consensus had expected. This is largely due to a lower utilisation rate in Sweden.
Thoughts and outlook
Following the report, we expect consensus to cut EBITA estimates by high single-digits. The company highlights the situation in Iran as a primary contributor to increased market uncertainty. Even though the macroeconomic conditions are tough, the company has maintained a relatively flat headcount q-o-q. This should be supportive of operating leverage when conditions change for the better. However, as long as the utilisation rate is below desired levels, the profitability will likely suffer at the current headcount level.
Consensus estimate revisions
On our unrevised estimates, B3 is trading at 5.6x '26e EV/EBITA. Mechanically, the impact on consensus EBITA estimates should be within a negative high single-digit range when considering the utilisation rate and B3 Poland's performance.