* Q3e: 5% organic growth and 23% EBITA growth y-o-y
* Acquisition and AI deal behind 3-4% higher EBITA estimates
* Share at 10.8x EV/EBITA 2027e after strong performance
Sentiment is improving
BTS is clearly turning around its North American business, and the worries that BTS was a potential AI loser a year ago have turned more into visible signs that it can secure businesses with AI as a key driver. The announced USD 12.8m AI deal (link) is just one of the testaments to that. The deal covers Q3'26-Q1'27, with the majority being booked in Q4. Assuming USD 7m being booked in Q4 means a growth contribution of >20% y-o-y in the North American segment, which is meaningful. Secondly, its peer Accenture is also showing increased growth rates and outlook comments about AI-linked projects and accelerated growth rates. We are a bit careful to extrapolate the European strengths into Q3e as Q2 was an unusually strong quarter, but we expect to see further sequential improvements in Other markets. For Q3 stand-alone, we estimate 5% organic growth and EBITA of SEK 56m, up 23% y-o-y and in line with FactSet consensus. We expect an unchanged 2026 guidance, namely that "2026 EBITA will be significantly higher than 2025", which is the highest guidance level. We estimate 25% EBITA growth in 2026 (13% adj. EBITA growth).
Positive estimate changes
We make a couple of estimate changes linked to 1) the announced AI deal, 2) the acquisition of Edward Lynx, and 3) positive FX movements. All in all, we raise sales by 3% in 2026e-28e and adj. EBITA by 3-4%.
Share now at 10.8x 2027e EV/EBITA
The share has been strong recently, up 24% in the last three months and 59% YTD, and is now trading at 10.8x EV/EBITA 2027e vs the 5-year average of 12.7x.